Monetary policy, determinacy, and learnability in the open economy
Abstract
We study how determinacy and learnability of global rational expectations equilibrium may be affected by monetary policy in a simple, two country, New Keynesian framework. The two blocks may be viewed as the U.S. and Europe, or as regions within the euro zone. We seek to understand how monetary policy choices may interact across borders to help or hinder the creation of a unique rational expectations equilibrium worldwide which can be learned by market participants. We study cases in which optimal policies are being pursued country by country as well as some forms of cooperation. We find that open economy considerations may alter conditions for determinacy and learnability relative to closed economy analyses, and that new concerns can arise in the analysis of classic topics such as the desirability of exchange rate targeting and monetary policy cooperation. JEL Classification: E52; F33.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 611.Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060611
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC
Order Information:
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Email:
Related research
Keywords: Indeterminacy; monetary policy rules; new open economy macroeconomics; international policy coordination.;Other versions of this item:
- James Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in the Open Economy," Working Papers 11, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Eric Schaling & James Bullard, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in the Open Economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 362, Society for Computational Economics.
- Bullard, J. & Schaling, E., 2005. "Monetary Policy, Determinancy and Learnability in the Open Economy," Discussion Paper 2005-116, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-05-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-05-06 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FMK-2006-05-06 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2006-05-06 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2006-05-06 (Monetary Economics)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Uribe, Martin, 2003.
"Real exchange rate targeting and macroeconomic instability,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 137-159, January.
- Martin Uribe, 2002. "Real Exchange Rate Targeting and Macroeconomic Instability," NBER Working Papers 9294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Uribe, 1995. "Real exchange rate targeting and macroeconomic instability," International Finance Discussion Papers 505, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2001.
"Welfare And Macroeconomic Interdependence,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 421-445, May.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 1997. "Welfare and Macroeconomic Interdependence," NBER Working Papers 6307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1982. "PPP Exchange-Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 158-65, February.
- Tommaso Monacelli, 2003.
"Monetary policy in a low pass-through environment,"
Working Paper Series
227, European Central Bank.
- Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary Policy in a Low Pass-Through Environment," Working Papers 228, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2005.
"Targeting versus instrument rules for monetary policy,"
Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 597-612.
- Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2005. "Targeting versus instrument rules for monetary policy," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 225-245.
- Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Targeting vs. Instrument Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 10612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Targeting vs. instrument rules for monetary policy," Working Papers 2004-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2004.
"Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy,"
Economics Working Papers
835, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Galí, Jordi & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo, 2002.
"International Dimensions of Optimal Monetary Policy,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo, 2005. "International dimensions of optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 281-305, March.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2001. "International dimensions of optimal monetary policy," Staff Reports 124, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2001. "International Dimensions of Optimal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001.
"Closing Small Open Economy Models,"
Departmental Working Papers
200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995.
"Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-60, June.
- Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-048, University of California at Berkeley.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," NBER Working Papers 4693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1999.
"New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models,"
NBER Working Papers
7313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1999. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt5pf7g8sh, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," International Finance 0004002, EconWPA.
- Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1999. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C99-107, University of California at Berkeley.
- Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2002.
"Adaptive learning and monetary policy design,"
Research Discussion Papers
29/2002, Bank of Finland.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1045-1084.
- Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design," CEPR Discussion Papers 3962, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-18, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 04 Mar 2004.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Macroeconomics 0405008, EconWPA.
- Bruce Preston, 2003.
"Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter,"
Working Paper
2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Bruce Preston, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
- Preston, Bruce, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," MPRA Paper 830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003.
"Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 807-824.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 807-824, October.
- Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2001. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Honkapohja, S. & Evans, G.W., 2000. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 481, Department of Economics.
- Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2000. "Expectations and the stability problem for optimal monetary policies," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2001. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-6, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 03 Aug 2001.
- Woodford, M., 1999.
"Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia.,"
Papers
666, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen.
- Woodford, Michael, 2000. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Seminar Papers 666, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," NBER Working Papers 7261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric Schaling, 1999. "The non-linear Phillips curve and inflation forecast targeting," Bank of England working papers 98, Bank of England.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 2004. "Targeting Rules vs. Instrument Rules for Monetary Policy: What is Wrong with McCallum and Nelson?," NBER Working Papers 10747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002.
"A simple framework for international monetary policy analysis,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 879-904, July.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002. "A Simple Framework for International Monetary Policy Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 3355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2002. "A Simple Framework for International Monetary Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 8870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 248-252, May.
- Pappa, Evi, 2004.
"Do the ECB and the fed really need to cooperate? Optimal monetary policy in a two-country world,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 753-779, May.
- Pappa, Evi, 2004. "Do the ECB and the Fed really need to cooperate? Optimal monetary policy in a two-country world," Open Access publications from London School of Economics and Political Science http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/, London School of Economics and Political Science.
- Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2002.
"Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Exchange Rate Disconnect,"
NBER Working Papers
8858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate disconnect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 913-940, July.
- M.B. Devereux & Ch. Engel, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and ExchangeRate Disconnect," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 77, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Lars E. O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2003.
"Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting,"
NBER Working Papers
9747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 19-92 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E O & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy Through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 4229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1998.
"Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1998, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 6790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Papers 646, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Seminar Papers 646, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003.
"Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: II. Applications,"
NBER Working Papers
9420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: II. Applications," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000394, UCLA Department of Economics.
- De Fiore, Fiorella & Liu, Zheng, 2005. "Does trade openness matter for aggregate instability?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1165-1192, July.
- Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
- Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2004. "PPP rules, macroeconomic (In)stability and learning," International Finance Discussion Papers 814, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005. "Targeting versus instrument rules for monetary policy: what is wrong with McCallum and Nelson?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 613-626.
- Ellison, Martin & Sarno, Lucio & Vilmunen, Jouko, 2007.
"Caution Or Activism? Monetary Policy Strategies In An Open Economy,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(04), pages 519-541, September.
- Ellison, Martin & Sarno, Lucio & Vilmunen, Jouko, 2004. "Caution or Activism? Monetary Policy Strategies in an Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4766, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martin Ellison & Lucio Sarno & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Caution or Activism? Monetary Policy Strategies in an Open Economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 214, Society for Computational Economics.
- Martin Ellison & Lucio Sarno & Jouko Vilmunen, 2007. "Caution or Activism? Monetary Policy Strategies in an Open Economy," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 18, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003.
"Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory,"
Levine's Bibliography
506439000000000384, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory," NBER Working Papers 9419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 1998. "Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates: How Price Setting Affects the Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
- Alexander A. Weinreb, 2003. "Change and instability," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 1(12), pages 373-396, September.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
- Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2001. "Endogenous Currency of Price Setting in a Dynamic Open Economy Model," NBER Working Papers 8559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060611For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

