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A speed limit monetary policy rule for the euro area

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  • Stracca, Livio

Abstract

This paper estimates a hybrid New Keynesian model on euro area data and evaluates the performance of different simple policy rules and of the optimal unconstrained rule under commitment. The study reaches two main conclusions. First, inflation is found to be mainly forward-looking in the euro area, which implies the optimal policy reaction to cost push shocks is a muted one. Second, a "speed limit" rule of the type recently proposed by Walsh (2003) is able to closely approximate the performance of the optimal rule under commitment. The optimal speed limit rule is also characterised by super-inertia, making it a first difference rule similar to those recently proposed as a possible solution to measurement problems in the level of the natural interest rate and of potential output. JEL Classification: E52, E58

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0600.

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Date of creation: Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060600

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Keywords: commitment; euro area; hybrid New Keynesian model; monetary policy rules; speed limit policies;

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  25. Coenen, Guenter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "A Small Estimated Euro Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Daniel Dias & Carlos Robalo Marques & J.M.C.Santos Silva, 2006. "Measuring the Importance of the Uniform Nonsynchronization Hypothesis," Working Papers w200603, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  2. Blake, Andrew P., 2012. "Determining optimal monetary speed limits," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 269-271.
  3. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2007. "Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Brendon, Charles & Paustian, Matthias & Yates, Tony, 2013. "The pitfalls of speed-limit interest rate rules at the zero lower bound," Bank of England working papers 473, Bank of England.
  5. Zeno Rotondi & Giacomo Vaciago, 2007. "Lessons from the ECB experience: Frankfurt still matters!," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief0070, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  6. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A market microstructure analysis of foreign exchange intervention," Working Paper Series 0629, European Central Bank.

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