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The impact of the euro on financial markets

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  • Cappiello, Lorenzo
  • Hördahl, Peter
  • Kadareja, Arjan
  • Manganelli, Simone

Abstract

We assess whether the euro had an impact first on the degree of integration of European financial markets, and, second, on the euro area term structure. We propose two methodologies to measure integration: one relies on time-varying GARCH correlations, and the other one on a regression quantile-based codependence measure. We document an overall increase in co movements in both equity and bond euro area markets, suggesting that integration has progressed since the introduction of the euro. However, while the correlations in bond markets reaches almost one for all euro area countries, co-movements in equity markets are much lower and the increase is limited to large euro area economies only. In the second part of the paper, we focus on the asset pricing implications of the euro. Specifically, we use a dynamic no arbitrage term structure model to examine the risk - return trade-off in the term structure of interest rates before and after the introduction of the euro. The analysis shows that while the average level of term premia seems little changed following the euro introduction, the variability of premia has been reduced as a result of smaller macro shocks during the euro period. Moreover, the macro factors that were found to be important in explaining the dynamics of premia before the introduction of the euro continue to play a key role in this respect also thereafter. JEL Classification: F36, G12, E43, E44, C22

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0598.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060598

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Related research

Keywords: conditional correlation; euro; financial integration; financial markets; fundamentals; risk premia; Term structure; Volatility;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Koutsomanoli-Filippaki, Anastasia & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel C., 2010. "Estimating the speed of adjustment of European banking efficiency under a quadratic loss function," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-11, January.
  2. Miankhel, Adil Khan & Kalirajan, Kaliappa & Thangavelu, Shandre, 2010. "Integration, decoupling and the global financial crisis: A global perspective," MPRA Paper 22837, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Anton, Sorin Gabriel & Avadanei, Andreea, 2010. "The implications of European retail banking integration on small and medium-sized enterprises financing. An overview," MPRA Paper 28660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "Financial Integration, GDP Correlation and the Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/9857, Sciences Po.
  5. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Vergos, Konstantinos, 2013. "Sovereign bond yield spillovers in the Euro zone during the financial and debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 258-272.
  6. Kazusuke Tsujimura & Masako Tsujimura, 2009. "The consequences of the introduction of the euro: a nested mixed-effects analysis of the international banking positions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 583-597, December.
  7. Goddard, John & Molyneux, Philip & Wilson, John O.S. & Tavakoli, Manouche, 2007. "European banking: An overview," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1911-1935, July.
  8. Agustín S. Bénétrix and Sébastien Wälti, 2008. "Indicators of regional financial integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp243, IIIS.
  9. Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Costa, Sonia, 2013. "Does the euro area forward rate provide accurate forecasts of the short rate?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 131-141.
  10. Gilles de Truchis, 2012. "Approximate Whittle Analysis of Fractional Cointegration and the Stock Market Synchronization Issue," AMSE Working Papers 1220, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France.
  11. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Vega, Juan Luis, 2006. "What effects is EMU having on the euro area and its member countries? An overview," Working Paper Series 0599, European Central Bank.
  12. Abad, Pilar & Chuliá, Helena & Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2010. "EMU and European government bond market integration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2851-2860, December.
  13. Cândida Ferreira, 2011. "European integration and banking efficiency: a panel cost frontier approach," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/04, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  14. Philip Lane & Sébastien Wälti, 2006. "The Euro and Financial Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp139, IIIS.
  15. Mamatzakis, E & Koutsomanoli, A, 2009. "European Banking Integration under a Quadratic Loss Function," MPRA Paper 19379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2008. "The euro and pound volatility dynamics: An investigation from conditional jump process," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 193-207, June.
  17. Wälti, Sébastien, 2011. "Stock market synchronization and monetary integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 96-110, February.
  18. Wälti, Sébastien, 2009. "Business cycle synchronicity, amplitude and the euro: one size does not yet fit all," MPRA Paper 21065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Sébastien W�lti, 2012. "The myth of decoupling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(26), pages 3407-3419, September.

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