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Price setting and inflation persistence: did EMU matter?

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Author Info
Ignazio Angeloni () (The Department of the Treasury, Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance, Via XX Settembre, 97, 00187 Rome, Italy.)
Luc Aucremanne () (National Bank of Belgium, Boulevard de Berlaimont 14, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium.)
Matteo Ciccarelli () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

Surprisingly it did not, or at least not directly. Using micro data on consumer prices and sectoral inflation rates from 6 euro area countries, spanning several years before and after the introduction of the euro, we look at whether EMU has altered the behaviour of retail price setting and/or inflation dynamics. We find no evidence that anything has changed around 1999 – if anything, persistence may have slightly increased. At the end of 2001 and in the beginning of 2002 (period surrounding the euro cash changeover) retail price adjustment frequencies, both up and down, increased substantially, while the magnitude of the price adjustment, also both up and down, was smaller than otherwise. However, both settled quickly back to the earlier patterns. On the contrary, we do find evidence of a decline in the persistence of the inflation process in the mid-1990s. This could be due to a structural change in private inflationary expectations due, at least in part, to policies linked to the preparation of EMU; however, this interpretation is weakened by the fact that a similar decline occurred also in the US. JEL Classification: E31; E42; E52.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 597.

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Length: 79 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060597

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Related research
Keywords: Price setting; inflation persistence; aggregate and sectoral inflation; EMU.;

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  1. Ana Lamo & Julián Messina & Etienne Wasmer, 2006. "Are specific skills an obstacle to labor market adjustment? Theory and an application to the EU enlargement," Working Paper Series 585, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Harald Stahl, 2005. "Price setting in German manufacturing: new evidence from new survey data," Working Paper Series 561, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2005. "Robustifying learnability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Michael Ehrmann, 2006. "Rational inattention, inflation developments and perceptions after the euro cash changeover," Working Paper Series 588, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2004. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: A Global VAR Analysis," IEPR Working Papers 04.6, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2006. "Cointegration in Panel Data with Breaks and Cross-Section Dependence," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/5, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Katja Funke & Christiane Nickel, 2006. "Does fiscal policy matter for the trade account? A panel cointegration study," Working Paper Series 620, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Balazs Egert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation Differentials in Europe," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp895, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006. "The Euro and Inflation Uncertainty in the European Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Alberto Montagnoli & Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials: Unit Roots, Structural Breaks and Non-Linear Adjustment," Working Papers 2007_13, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  5. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2008. "Global inflation," Working Paper Series WP-08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Alberto Musso & Livio Stracca & Dick van Dijk, 2007. "Instability and nonlinearity in the Euro area Phillips curve," Working Paper Series 811, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Francesco Paolo Mongelli & Juan Luis Vega, 2006. "What effects is EMU having on the euro area and its member countries? An overview," Working Paper Series 599, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. António Afonso & Vítor Gaspar, 2006. "Excess burden and the cost of inefficiency in public services provision," Working Paper Series 601, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Stephen G Cecchetti & Richhild Moessner, 2008. "Commodity prices and inflation dynamics," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December. [Downloadable!]
  10. Giulio Palomba & Emma Sarno & Alberto Zazzaro, 2009. "Testing similarities of short-run inflation dynamics among EU-25 countries after the Euro," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 231-270, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "The Real Effects of EMU," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp115, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Andrea Vaona & Guido Ascari, 2007. "Regional Inflation Persistence: Evidence from Italy," Quaderni della facoltà di Scienze economiche dell'Università di Lugano 0807, Biblioteca universitaria di Lugano (University Library of Lugano). [Downloadable!]
  13. Paolo Vitale, 2006. "A market microstructure analysis of foreign exchange intervention," Working Paper Series 629, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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