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The euro's trade effect

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Author Info
Richard E. Baldwin () (University of Geneva - Graduate Institute of International Studies (HEI), CH-1202 Geneva, Switzerland.)

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Abstract

This paper reviews reassesses the methodology and principal findings of the “Rose effect”, i.e. the trade effects of currency union, looking at both EMU and non-EMU currency unions. The consensus estimate suggests that the euro has already boosted intra-euro area trade by five to ten percent. The paper discusses a gamut of models that might explain the Rose effect in Europe and suggests a series of empirical test that could help identify the economic mechanisms involved. JEL Classification: F12; C33; E0.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 594.

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Length: 102 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060594

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Related research
Keywords: Rose effect exchange rate volatility monetary union gravity model.

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Sergio Nardis, 2003. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 139(4), pages 625-649, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Mélitz, Jacques, 2001. "Geography, Trade and Currency Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 2987, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-25, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Michael R. Pakko & Howard J. Wall, 2001. "Reconsidering the trade-creating effects of a currency union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 37-46. [Downloadable!]
  8. Kleiman, Ephraim, 1976. "Trade and the Decline of Colonialism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(343), pages 459-80, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU," Working Paper Series rwp04-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
  13. Parsley, David C. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2001. "Explaining the border effect: the role of exchange rate variability, shipping costs, and geography," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 87-105, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Hamilton, C.B. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe," Papers 511, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  15. Michael W. Klein, 2002. "Dollarization and Trade," NBER Working Papers 8879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Roland Rieder, 2006. "Playing Dominoes in Europe: An Empirical Analysis of the Domino Theory for the EU, 1962-2004," HEI Working Papers 11-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jun 2006. [Downloadable!]
  2. Coeurdacier , Nicolas & Martin, Philippe, 2007. "The geography of asset holdings: Evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 202, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  3. Felix Chan Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli Laurent L. Pauwels, 2006. "Stability Tests for Heterogeneous Panel Data," HEI Working Papers 24-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Alistair Dieppe & Thomas Warmedinger, 2007. "Modelling intra- and extra-area trade substitution and exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," Working Paper Series 760, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Adam S. Posen & Daniel Popov Gould, 2006. "Has EMU Had Any Impact on the Degree of Wage Restraint?," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP06-06, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Uwe Böwer & Catherine Guillemineau, 2006. "Determinants of business cycle synchronisation across euro area countries," Working Paper Series 587, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, 2006. "Explaining the Euro's Effect on Trade? Interest Rates in an Augmented Gravity Equation," HEI Working Papers 10-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies. [Downloadable!]
  8. Julia Spies & Helena Marques, 2006. "Trade Effects of the Europe Agreements," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 274/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Martin, Philippe, 2006. "The Geography of Asset Trade and the Euro: Insiders and Outsiders," ESSEC Working Papers DR 06020, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Artis, Michael J, 2006. "What Do We Now Know About Currency Unions?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5677, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Philip Lane & Sébastien Wälti, 2006. "The Euro and Financial Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp139, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  12. Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2006. "Is There a Euro Effect on Trade? An Application of End-of-Sample Structural Break Tests for Panel Data," HEI Working Papers 04-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006. [Downloadable!]
  13. Barry Eichengreen, 2008. "Sui Generis EMU," NBER Working Papers 13740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "The Real Effects of EMU," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp115, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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