Non-linear dynamics in the euro area demand for M1
AbstractThis paper investigates possible non-linearities in the dynamics of the euro area demand for the narrow aggregate M1. A long-run money demand relationship is firstly estimated over a sample period covering the last three decades. While the parameters of the relationship are jointly stable, there are indications of non-linearity in the residuals of the error-correction model. This non-linearity is explicitly modelled using a fairly general Markov switching error-correction model with satisfactory results. The empirical findings of the paper are consistent with theoretical predictions stemming from "buffer stock" and "target-threshold" models and with analogous empirical evidence for European countries and the US. JEL Classification: E41, C22
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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-03-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-03-25 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2006-03-25 (European Economics)
- NEP-FMK-2006-03-25 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2006-03-25 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2006-03-25 (Monetary Economics)
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