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Determinants of business cycle synchronisation across euro area countries

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Author Info
Uwe Böwer () (University of Munich, Munich Graduate School of Economics, Kaulbachstr. 45, 80539 Munich, Germany.)
Catherine Guillemineau () (The Conference Board, 845 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10022-6679, USA)
Abstract

We investigate the key factors underlying business cycle synchronisation in the euro area applying the extreme-bounds analysis. We examine both traditional determinants and new, EMU-specific policy and structural indicators over the past 25 years. Our evidence seems to support the endogeneity hypothesis of the optimum currency area criteria. The implementation of the single market intensified bilateral trade across euro area countries and contributed to higher business cycle symmetry. The introduction of the single currency led to an intensification of intra-industry trade which has become the main driving force ensuring the coherence of business cycles. In addition, the set of robust determinants of business cycle synchronisation has varied over time, depending on the difference phases of the European construction, with fiscal policy, in addition to industrial and financial structures, playing a greater role during the completion of the Single Market, while short-term interest rate differentials and cyclical services have become more determinant since Economic and Monetary Union. JEL Classification: C21; E32; F15.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 587.

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Length: 71 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060587

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Keywords: business cycle synchronisation; extreme-bounds analysis; Economic and Monetary Union; trade.;

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  6. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 03/27, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Crowley, Patrick, 2008. "One Money, Several Cycles? Evaluation of European business cycles using model-based cluster analysis," Research Discussion Papers 3/2008, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  2. Traistaru-Siedschlag, Iulia, 2007. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in Ireland under the EMU," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(1-Spring), pages 78-92. [Downloadable!]
  3. Barbara Berkel, 2006. "The EMU and German Cross-Border Portfolio Flows," MEA discussion paper series 06110, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  4. Goggin, Jean & Siedschlag, Iulia, 2009. "International Transmission of Business Cycles Between Ireland and its Trading Partners," Papers WP279, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  5. Barbara Berkel, 2006. "The EMU and German Cross-Border Portfolio Flows," MEA discussion paper series 06110, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  6. Enrico Marelli, 2007. "Specialisation and Convergence in European Regions," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 4(2), pages 149-178, September. [Downloadable!]
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