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A method to generate structural impulse-responses for measuring the effects of shocks in structural macro models

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Author Info
Andreas Beyer () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Roger E. A. Farmer () (UCLA, Department of Economics, 8283 Bunche Hall, Box 951477, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1477, USA;)

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Abstract

We develop a technique for analyzing the response dynamics of economic variables to structural shocks in linear rational expectations models. Our work differs from standard SVARs since we allow expectations of future variables to enter structural equations. We show how to estimate the variance-covariance matrix of fundamental and non-fundamental shocks and we construct point estimates and confidence bounds for impulse response functions. Our technique can handle both determinate and indeterminate equilibria. We provide an application to U.S. monetary policy under pre and post Volcker monetary policy rules. JEL Classification: C39; C62; D51; E52; E58.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 586.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060586

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Related research
Keywords: Identification indeterminacy rational expectations models.

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  1. Andreas Beyer & Roger E.A. Farmer, 2003. "On the indeterminacy of determinacy and indeterminacy," Working Paper Series 277, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2004. "On the Indeterminacy of New-Keynesian Economics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 152, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E A, 2003. "Identifying the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Using Structural Breaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4106, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?," Staff Report 364, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, . "Back to Square One: Identification Issues in DSGE Models," Working Papers 303, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curves: A Full Information Maximum Likelihood Approach," Working Paper Series 129, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 30 Apr 2001. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39, pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What Happens After a Technology Shock?," NBER Working Papers 9819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  15. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  16. Keating, John W., 1990. "Identifying VAR models under rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 453-476, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," NBER Working Papers 9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Benhabib, J. & Farmer, R.E.A., 1996. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Working Papers 96-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide & Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2005. "On the fit and forecasting performance of New-Keynesian models," Working Paper Series 491, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, . "Computational Economics," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number comp1, September. [Downloadable!]
  21. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Lars Peter Hansen & Ellen R. McGrattan & Thomas J. Sargent, 1994. "Mechanics of forming and estimating dynamic linear economies," Staff Report 182, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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