A disaggregated framework for the analysis of structural developments in public finances
AbstractIn this paper, we present a disaggregated framework for the analysis of past and projected structural developments in the most relevant revenue and expenditure categories and the fiscal balance. The framework, in particular, distinguishes between the effects of discretionary fiscal policy and of macroeconomic and other developments and is sufficiently standardised to be used in multi-country studies. Here, it is applied to Belgium, Finland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal over the period 1998 to 2004. During this period the structural primary balance ratio clearly worsened in all countries except Finland. In Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands, both revenue and expenditure contributed to the deterioration of the structural primary balance. In Germany the large deterioration in revenue was partially offset by the decline in the structural primary expenditure ratio, while the opposite was true for Portugal. The analysis highlights the various factors that contributed to these developments. JEL Classification: H20, H50, H60, E69
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0579.
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Other versions of this item:
- Jana Kremer & Cláudia Braz & Teunis Brosens & Geert Langenus & Sandro Momigliano & Mikko Spolander, 2006. "A disaggregated framework for the analysis of structural developments in public finances," Working Papers w200607, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Kremer, Jana & Braz, Cláudia Rodrigues & Brosens, Teunis & Langenus, Geert & Momigliano, Sandro & Spolander, Mikko, 2006. "A disaggregated framework for the analysis of structural developments in public finances," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- E69 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Other
- H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
- H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
- H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-01-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2006-01-24 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2006-01-24 (Public Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eschenbach, Felix & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2002. "Asset prices and fiscal balances," Working Paper Series 0141, European Central Bank.
- Vincent Koen & Paul van den Noord, 2005. "Fiscal Gimmickry in Europe: One-Off Measures and Creative Accounting," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 417, OECD Publishing.
- Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
- Bouthevillain, C. & Van Den Dool, G. & Langenus, G. & Mohr, M. & Momigliano, S. & Tujula, M. & De Cos, P.H. & Cour-Thimann, Philippine, 2001.
"Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances: an Alternative Approach,"
77, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
- Bouthevillain, Carine & Cour-Thimann, Philippine & van de Dool, Gerrit & Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Langenus, Geert & Mohr, Matthias & Momigliano, Sandro & Tujula, Mika, 2001. "Cyclically adjusted budget balances: an alternative approach," Working Paper Series 0077, European Central Bank.
- Nathalie Girouard & Robert W.R. Price, 2004. "Asset Price Cycles, “One-Off” Factors and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 391, OECD Publishing.
- Bode, Oliver & Gerke, Rafael & Schellhorn, Hannes, 2006. "Die Wirkung fiskalischer Schocks auf das Bruttoinlandsprodukt," Working Papers 01/2006, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
- Luca Agnello & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2012.
"Discretionary Fiscal Policies over the Cycle: New Evidence Based on the ESCB Disaggregated Approach,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(2), pages 43-85, June.
- Agnello, Luca & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2009. "Discretionary Fiscal Policies over the Cycle: New Evidence based on the ESCB Disaggregated Approach," Working Paper Series 1118, European Central Bank.
- Gábor P. Kiss, 2007. "One-off and off-budget items: An alternative approach," MNB Conference Volume, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), vol. 1(1), pages 18-27, December.
- Jef Vuchelen & Jesse De Wit, 2008. "An Evaluation of the OECD Cyclically-Adjusted Primary Government Balance Forecasts," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 51(4), pages 459-479.
- Jörn Tenhofen & Guntram B. Wolff & Kirsten H. Heppke-Falk, 2010.
"The Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Germany: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis,"
Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik),
Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(3), pages 328-355, June.
- Wolff, Guntram B. & Tenhofen, Jörn & Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H., 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Germany: a disaggregated SVAR analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,41, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- De Laet, Jean-Pierre & Wöhlbier, Florian, 2008. "Tax burden by economic function A comparison for the EU Member States," MPRA Paper 14761, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Baum, Anja & Koester, Gerrit B., 2011. "The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity over the business cycle - evidence from a threshold VAR analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.