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A disaggregated framework for the analysis of structural developments in public finances

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Author Info
Jana Kremer () (Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-Strasse 14, 60431 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Claudia Rodrigues Braz () (Banco de Portugal, Av. Almirante Reis, 71, 1150-012 Lisbon, Portugal)
Teunis Brosens () (De Nederlandsche Bank, Westeinde 1, NL-1017 ZN Amsterdam, The Netherlands.)
Geert Langenus () (Banque Nationale de Belgique, Boulevard de Berlaimont 14, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium.)
Sandro Momigliano () (Banca d’Italia, Via Nazionale 91, I-00184 Rome, Italy.)
Mikko Spolander () (European Central Bank,Kaiserstrasse 29, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

In this paper, we present a disaggregated framework for the analysis of past and projected structural developments in the most relevant revenue and expenditure categories and the fiscal balance. The framework, in particular, distinguishes between the effects of discretionary fiscal policy and of macroeconomic and other developments and is sufficiently standardised to be used in multi-country studies. Here, it is applied to Belgium, Finland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal over the period 1998 to 2004. During this period the structural primary balance ratio clearly worsened in all countries except Finland. In Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands, both revenue and expenditure contributed to the deterioration of the structural primary balance. In Germany the large deterioration in revenue was partially offset by the decline in the structural primary expenditure ratio, while the opposite was true for Portugal. The analysis highlights the various factors that contributed to these developments. JEL Classification: H20; H50; H60; E69.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 579.

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Length: 65 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060579

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Related research
Keywords: Structural budget balance fiscal forecasting and monitoring fiscal indicators transmission survey data communication.

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Vincent Koen & Paul van den Noord, 2005. "Fiscal Gimmickry in Europe: One-Off Measures and Creative Accounting," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 417, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Nathalie Girouard & Robert Price, 2004. "Asset Price Cycles, “One-Off” Factors and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 391, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ludger Schuknecht & Felix Eschenbach, 2002. "Asset prices and fiscal balances," Working Paper Series 141, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Philippine Cour-Thimann & Pablo Hernandez Cos & Matthias F. Mohr & Mika Tujula & Carine Bouthevillain & Geert Langenus & Sandro Momigliano & Gerrit Van Den Dool, 2001. "Cyclically adjusted budget balances: an alternative approach," Working Paper Series 077, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H. & Tenhofen, Jörn & Wolff, Guntram B., 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Germany: a disaggregated SVAR analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,41, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gábor P. Kiss, 2007. "One-off and off-budget items: An alternative approach," MNB Conference Volume, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 1(1), pages 18-27, December. [Downloadable!]
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