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Inflation convergence and divergence within the European Monetary Union

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Author Info
Fabio Busetti () (Bank of Italy, Research Department, Via Nazionale 91, 00184 Rome, Italy)
Lorenzo Forni () (Bank of Italy, Research Department, Via Nazionale 91, 00184 Rome, Italy)
Andrew Harvey () (University of Cambridge, Department of Applied Economics, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge CB3 9DE, United Kingdom)
Fabrizio Venditti () (Bank of Italy, Research Department, Via Nazionale 91, 00184 Rome, Italy)

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Abstract

We study the convergence properties of inflation rates among the countries of the European Monetary Union over the period 1980-2004. Given the Maastricht agreements and the adoption of the single currency, the sample can be naturally split into two parts, before and after the birth of the euro. We study convergence in the first sub-sample by means of univariate and multivariate unit root tests on inflation differentials, arguing that the power of the tests is considerably increased if the Dickey-Fuller regressions are run without an intercept term. Overall, we are able to accept the convergence hypothesis over the period 1980-1997. We then investigate whether the second sub-sample is characterized by stable inflation rates across the European countries. Using stationarity tests on inflation differentials, we find evidence of diverging behaviour. In particular, we can statistically detect two separate clusters, or convergence clubs: a lower inflation group that comprises Germany, France, Belgium, Austria, Finland and a higher inflation one with Spain, Netherlands, Greece, Portugal and Ireland. Italy appears to form a cluster of its own, standing in between the other two. JEL Classification: C12; C22; C32; E31.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 574.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060574

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Related research
Keywords: Absolute convergence inflation differentials stability unit root tests.

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  6. Harvey, A. & Vasco Carvalho, 2002. "Models for Converging Economies," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0216, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  7. Fabian BORNHORST, 2003. "On the use of panel unit root tests on cross-sectionally dependent data: an application to PPP," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/24, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-81. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Flores, Renato & Jorion, Philippe & Preumont, Pierre-Yves & Szafarz, Ariane, 1999. "Multivariate unit root tests of the PPP hypothesis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 335-353, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Fabio Busetti & Andrew Harvey, 2007. "Testing for trend," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 614, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sebastian Dullien & Ulrich Fritsche, 2007. "Does the Dispersion of Unit Labor Cost Dynamics in the EMU Imply Long-Run Divergence? : Results from a Comparison with the United States of America and Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 674, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ashoka Mody & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2007. "Can Domestic Policies Influence Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 07/257, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. GRENADE, Kari & MOORE, Winston, 2008. "Co-Movements Between Foreign And Domestic Interest Rates In A Fixed Exchange Rate Regime: The Case Of The Eccu And The Us," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(1), pages 119-130. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Alina Spiru, 2007. "Inflation convergence in the new EU member states," Working Papers 005221, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006. "The Euro and Inflation Uncertainty in the European Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Andrea, SILVESTRINI, 2007. "Testing fiscal sustainability in Poland : a Bayesian analysis of cointegration," Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper 2007040, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
  7. Alberto Montagnoli & Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials: Unit Roots, Structural Breaks and Non-Linear Adjustment," Working Papers 2007_13, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  8. Christian Proaño Acosta, 2007. "Inflation Differentials and Business Cycle Fluctuations in the European Monetary Union," IMK Working Paper 05-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. Claude Lopez, 2008. "Euro-zone Inflation Rates: Stationary or Regime-wise Stationary Processes," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2008-02, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics, revised 2008. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2007. "Unit Labor Cost Growth Differentials in the Euro Area, Germany, and the US : Lessons from PANIC and Cluster Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 667, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. P. Siklos & M. Bohl, 2006. "Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule," Working Papers eg0053, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Agnes Benassy-Quere, 2006. "Short-Term Fiscal Spillovers in a Monetary Union," Working Papers 2006-13, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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