Credit chains and the propagation of financial distress
AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to analyze how shocks propagate through a network of firms that borrow from, and lend to, each other in a trade credit chain, and to quantify the effects of financial contagion across firms. I develop a theoretical model of financial contagion, in which the default of one firm may cause a chain reaction such that its creditors also get into financial difficulties, even though they are sound in the first place. I calibrate and simulate the model using US annual data over the period 1986-2004. At the microeconomic level, I find that, when customers of a sound firm are financially distressed, then this firm gets into financial difficulties with probability that ranges from 4.1% to 12.8% (depending on the business cycle and the underlying economic scenario). Looking at the macroeconomic level, I find that defaults on trade debts lower aggregate GDP by at least 0.4%. During the second half of the 90’s, these deadweight losses doubled and reached a high of 0.9% to 2.3% of GDP (depending on the underlying economic scenario) before the recession of 2001. The results of the simulations also suggest that financial contagion across businesses had been 25% higher during the last recession than during the recession of the early 90’s. JEL Classification: E32, G29, G33
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0573.
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other
- G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-01-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2006-01-24 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2006-01-24 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2006-01-24 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Hernando, Ignacio & Generale, Andrea & Chatelain, Jean Bernard & Vermeulen, Philip, 2001.
"Firm Investment and Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2001,20, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Chatelain, Jean Bernard & Generale, Andrea & Hernando, Ignacio & Kalckreuth, Ulf von & Vermeulen, Philip, 2002. "Firm Investment and Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 A3-3, International Conferences on Panel Data.
- Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Andrea Generale & Ignacio Hernando & Ulf Von Kalckreuth & Philip Vermeulen, 2003. "Firm investment and monetary policy transmission in the Euro Area," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00112525, HAL.
- Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Andrea Generale & Ignacio Hernando & Ulf von Kalckreuth & Philip Vermeulen, 2001. "Firm Investment and Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 0119, Banco de Espa�a.
- Chatelain, J-B. & Generale, A. & Hernando, I. & Von Kalckreuth, U. & Vermeulen, P., 2002. "Firm Investment and Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Working papers 97, Banque de France.
- Brennan, Michael J & Maksimovic, Vojislav & Zechner, Josef, 1988. " Vendor Financing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1127-41, December.
- Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Mojon, Benoît & Kashyap, Anil K. & Angeloni, Ignazio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series 0114, European Central Bank.
- Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1997.
"Trade Credit: Theories and Evidence,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 661-91.
- Mitchell A. Petersen & Raghuram G. Rajan, 1996. "Trade Credit: Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mitchell A. Petersen & Raghuram G. Rajan, . "Trade Credit: Theories and Evidence," CRSP working papers 322, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Tore Ellingsen & Mike Burkart, 2002.
FMG Discussion Papers
dp421, Financial Markets Group.
- Emery, Gary W., 1987. "An Optimal Financial Response to Variable Demand," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 209-225, June.
- Ferris, J Stephen, 1981. "A Transactions Theory of Trade Credit Use," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 243-70, May.
- Vincente Cuñat, 2000.
"Trade Credit: Suppliers as Debt Collectors and Insurance Providers,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp365, Financial Markets Group.
- Vicente Cuñat, 2002. "Trade credit: Suppliers as debt collectors and insurance providers," Economics Working Papers 625, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2004.
- Lee, Yul W. & Stowe, John D., 1993. "Product Risk, Asymmetric Information, and Trade Credit," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(02), pages 285-300, June.
- Biais, Bruno & Gollier, Christian, 1997. "Trade Credit and Credit Rationing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 903-37.
- Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce Greenwald & Alberto Russo & Joseph Stiglitz, 2009. "Business fluctuations and bankruptcy avalanches in an evolving network economy," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 195-212, November.
- Kares, Alexei & Schoors , Koen & Lanine, Gleb, 2008.
"Liquidity matters: Evidence from the Russian interbank market,"
BOFIT Discussion Papers
19/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- A. Karas & K. Schoors & G. Lanine, 2008. "Liquidity matters: Evidence from the Russian interbank market," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/520, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Joseph E Stiglitz & Mauro Gallegati, 2011. "Heterogeneous Interacting Agent Models for Understanding Monetary Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(1), pages 6-12.
- Peter Broer & JÃ¼rgen Antony, 2013. "Financial Shocks and Economic Activity in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 260, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2007. "Credit chains and bankruptcy propagation in production networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2061-2084, June.
- Dellâ€™Aquila, Crescenzo & Eboli, Mario, 4. "Financing production with liquidity constraints: the role of trade credit in agro-food supply chains," Politica Agricola Internazionale - International Agricultural Policy, Edizioni L’Informatore Agrario, issue 4.
- Stefano Battiston & Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2009.
"Liaisons Dangereuses: Increasing Connectivity, Risk Sharing, and Systemic Risk,"
NBER Working Papers
15611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
- Didier Rulli\`ere & Diana Dorobantu & Areski Cousin, 2009.
"An extension of Davis and Lo's contagion model,"
0904.1653, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2010.
- Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce C. Greenwald & Alberto Russo & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2008. "Financially Constrained Fluctuations in an Evolving Network Economy," NBER Working Papers 14112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dias, Daniel & Robalo Marques, Carlos & Santos Silva, João M. C., 2006.
"Measuring the importance of the uniform nonsynchronization hypothesis,"
Working Paper Series
0606, European Central Bank.
- Daniel Dias & Carlos Robalo Marques & J.M.C.Santos Silva, 2006. "Measuring the Importance of the Uniform Nonsynchronization Hypothesis," Working Papers w200603, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Jacobson, Tor & von Schedvin, Erik, 2012. "Trade Credit and the Propagation of Corporate Failure: An Empirical Analysis," Working Paper Series 263, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Stefania Vitali & Stefano Battiston & Mauro Gallegati, . "Financial fragility and distress propagation in a network of regions," Working Papers ETH-RC-12-016, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
- Mathieu Bédard, 2012. "Informational Contagion and the Entrepreneurial Production of Informational Remedies," CAE Working Papers 96, Aix-Marseille Université, CERGAM, revised Mar 2013.
- Domenico Gatti & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati, 2010. "Complex agent-based macroeconomics: a manifesto for a new paradigm," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 111-135, December.
- Nuno Silva, 2010. "Inter-Sector Relations in the Portuguese Economy: an Application of Contingent," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Hazama, Makoto & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2012. "Measuring the Systemic Risk in Interfirm Transaction Networks," Working Paper Series 20, Center for Interfirm Network, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2010. "The financial accelerator in an evolving credit network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1627-1650, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.