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Credit chains and the propagation of financial distress

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how shocks propagate through a network of firms that borrow from, and lend to, each other in a trade credit chain, and to quantify the effects of financial contagion across firms. I develop a theoretical model of financial contagion, in which the default of one firm may cause a chain reaction such that its creditors also get into financial difficulties, even though they are sound in the first place. I calibrate and simulate the model using US annual data over the period 1986-2004. At the microeconomic level, I find that, when customers of a sound firm are financially distressed, then this firm gets into financial difficulties with probability that ranges from 4.1% to 12.8% (depending on the business cycle and the underlying economic scenario). Looking at the macroeconomic level, I find that defaults on trade debts lower aggregate GDP by at least 0.4%. During the second half of the 90’s, these deadweight losses doubled and reached a high of 0.9% to 2.3% of GDP (depending on the underlying economic scenario) before the recession of 2001. The results of the simulations also suggest that financial contagion across businesses had been 25% higher during the last recession than during the recession of the early 90’s. JEL Classification: E32; G29; G33.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 573.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060573

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Keywords: Financial contagion; trade credit; business fluctuations.;

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References

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  1. Lee, Yul W. & Stowe, John D., 1993. "Product Risk, Asymmetric Information, and Trade Credit," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(02), pages 285-300, June.
  2. Vincente Cuñat, 2000. "Trade Credit: Suppliers as Debt Collectors and Insurance Providers," FMG Discussion Papers dp365, Financial Markets Group.
  3. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Andrea Generale & Ignacio Hernando & Ulf von Kalckreuth & Philip Vermeulen, 2001. "Firm Investment and Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Banco de España Working Papers 0119, Banco de España.
  4. Ferris, J Stephen, 1981. "A Transactions Theory of Trade Credit Use," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 243-70, May.
  5. Brennan, Michael J & Maksimovic, Vojislav & Zechner, Josef, 1988. " Vendor Financing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1127-41, December.
  6. Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1997. "Trade Credit: Theories and Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 661-91.
  7. Biais, Bruno & Gollier, Christian, 1997. "Trade Credit and Credit Rationing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 903-37.
  8. Emery, Gary W., 1987. "An Optimal Financial Response to Variable Demand," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 209-225, June.
  9. Tore Ellingsen & Mike Burkart, 2002. "In-Kind Finance," FMG Discussion Papers dp421, Financial Markets Group.
  10. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Didier Rulli\`ere & Diana Dorobantu & Areski Cousin, 2009. "An extension of Davis and Lo's contagion model," Papers 0904.1653, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2010.
  2. Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce C. Greenwald & Alberto Russo & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2008. "Financially Constrained Fluctuations in an Evolving Network Economy," NBER Working Papers 14112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce Greenwald & Alberto Russo & Joseph Stiglitz, 2009. "Business fluctuations and bankruptcy avalanches in an evolving network economy," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 195-212, November.
  4. A. Karas & K. Schoors & G. Lanine, 2008. "Liquidity matters: Evidence from the Russian interbank market," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/520, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  5. Joseph E Stiglitz & Mauro Gallegati, 2011. "Heterogeneous Interacting Agent Models for Understanding Monetary Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(1), pages 6-12.
  6. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2010. "The financial accelerator in an evolving credit network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1627-1650, September.
  7. Jacobson, Tor & von Schedvin, Erik, 2012. "Trade Credit and the Propagation of Corporate Failure: An Empirical Analysis," Working Paper Series 263, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  8. Stefania Vitali & Stefano Battiston & Mauro Gallegati, . "Financial fragility and distress propagation in a network of regions," Working Papers ETH-RC-12-016, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
  9. Nuno Silva, 2010. "Inter-Sector Relations in the Portuguese Economy: an Application of Contingent," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  10. Domenico Gatti & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati, 2010. "Complex agent-based macroeconomics: a manifesto for a new paradigm," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 111-135, December.
  11. Mathieu Bédard, 2012. "Informational Contagion and the Entrepreneurial Production of Informational Remedies," CAE Working Papers 96, Aix-Marseille Université, CERGAM, revised Mar 2013.
  12. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2007. "Credit chains and bankruptcy propagation in production networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2061-2084, June.

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