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Credit chains and the propagation of financial distress

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  • Boissay, Frédéric

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how shocks propagate through a network of firms that borrow from, and lend to, each other in a trade credit chain, and to quantify the effects of financial contagion across firms. I develop a theoretical model of financial contagion, in which the default of one firm may cause a chain reaction such that its creditors also get into financial difficulties, even though they are sound in the first place. I calibrate and simulate the model using US annual data over the period 1986-2004. At the microeconomic level, I find that, when customers of a sound firm are financially distressed, then this firm gets into financial difficulties with probability that ranges from 4.1% to 12.8% (depending on the business cycle and the underlying economic scenario). Looking at the macroeconomic level, I find that defaults on trade debts lower aggregate GDP by at least 0.4%. During the second half of the 90’s, these deadweight losses doubled and reached a high of 0.9% to 2.3% of GDP (depending on the underlying economic scenario) before the recession of 2001. The results of the simulations also suggest that financial contagion across businesses had been 25% higher during the last recession than during the recession of the early 90’s. JEL Classification: E32, G29, G33

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0573.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060573

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Keywords: business fluctuations; Financial contagion; trade credit;

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References

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  1. Mike Burkart & Tore Ellingsen, 2002. "In-kind finance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24940, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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Cited by:
  1. Stefania Vitali & Stefano Battiston & Mauro Gallegati, . "Financial fragility and distress propagation in a network of regions," Working Papers ETH-RC-12-016, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
  2. Mathieu Bédard, 2012. "Informational Contagion and the Entrepreneurial Production of Informational Remedies," CAE Working Papers 96, Aix-Marseille Université, CERGAM, revised Mar 2013.
  3. Hazama, Makoto & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2012. "Measuring the Systemic Risk in Interfirm Transaction Networks," Working Paper Series 20, Center for Interfirm Network, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  4. Jacobson, Tor & von Schedvin, Erik, 2012. "Trade Credit and the Propagation of Corporate Failure: An Empirical Analysis," Working Paper Series 263, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  5. Joseph E Stiglitz & Mauro Gallegati, 2011. "Heterogeneous Interacting Agent Models for Understanding Monetary Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(1), pages 6-12.
  6. A. Karas & K. Schoors & G. Lanine, 2008. "Liquidity matters: Evidence from the Russian interbank market," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/520, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  7. Stefano Battiston & Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2009. "Liaisons Dangereuses: Increasing Connectivity, Risk Sharing, and Systemic Risk," NBER Working Papers 15611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Nuno Silva, 2010. "Inter-Sector Relations in the Portuguese Economy: an Application of Contingent," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  9. Didier Rullière & Diana Dorobantu & Areski Cousin, 2013. "An extension of Davis and Lo's contagion model," Post-Print hal-00374367, HAL.
  10. Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce Greenwald & Alberto Russo & Joseph Stiglitz, 2009. "Business fluctuations and bankruptcy avalanches in an evolving network economy," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 195-212, November.
  11. Peter Broer & Jürgen Antony, 2013. "Financial Shocks and Economic Activity in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 260, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  12. Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce C. Greenwald & Alberto Russo & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2008. "Financially Constrained Fluctuations in an Evolving Network Economy," NBER Working Papers 14112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Domenico Gatti & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati, 2010. "Complex agent-based macroeconomics: a manifesto for a new paradigm," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 111-135, December.
  14. Dias, Daniel & Robalo Marques, Carlos & Santos Silva, João M. C., 2006. "Measuring the importance of the uniform nonsynchronization hypothesis," Working Paper Series 0606, European Central Bank.
  15. Dell’Aquila, Crescenzo & Eboli, Mario, 4. "Financing production with liquidity constraints: the role of trade credit in agro-food supply chains," Politica Agricola Internazionale - International Agricultural Policy, Edizioni L’Informatore Agrario, issue 4.
  16. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2010. "The financial accelerator in an evolving credit network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1627-1650, September.
  17. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2007. "Credit chains and bankruptcy propagation in production networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2061-2084, June.

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