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Credit chains and the propagation of financial distress

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  • Boissay, Frédéric

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how shocks propagate through a network of firms that borrow from, and lend to, each other in a trade credit chain, and to quantify the effects of financial contagion across firms. I develop a theoretical model of financial contagion, in which the default of one firm may cause a chain reaction such that its creditors also get into financial difficulties, even though they are sound in the first place. I calibrate and simulate the model using US annual data over the period 1986-2004. At the microeconomic level, I find that, when customers of a sound firm are financially distressed, then this firm gets into financial difficulties with probability that ranges from 4.1% to 12.8% (depending on the business cycle and the underlying economic scenario). Looking at the macroeconomic level, I find that defaults on trade debts lower aggregate GDP by at least 0.4%. During the second half of the 90’s, these deadweight losses doubled and reached a high of 0.9% to 2.3% of GDP (depending on the underlying economic scenario) before the recession of 2001. The results of the simulations also suggest that financial contagion across businesses had been 25% higher during the last recession than during the recession of the early 90’s. JEL Classification: E32, G29, G33

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0573.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060573

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Keywords: business fluctuations; Financial contagion; trade credit;

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References

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  1. Tore Ellingsen & Mike Burkart, 2002. "In-Kind Finance," FMG Discussion Papers dp421, Financial Markets Group.
  2. Chatelain, J-B. & Generale, A. & Hernando, I. & Von Kalckreuth, U. & Vermeulen, P., 2002. "Firm Investment and Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Working papers 97, Banque de France.
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Cited by:
  1. Dias, Daniel & Robalo Marques, Carlos & Santos Silva, João M. C., 2006. "Measuring the importance of the uniform nonsynchronization hypothesis," Working Paper Series 0606, European Central Bank.
  2. Mathieu Bédard, 2012. "Informational Contagion and the Entrepreneurial Production of Informational Remedies," CAE Working Papers 96, Aix-Marseille Université, CERGAM, revised Mar 2013.
  3. Kares, Alexei & Schoors , Koen & Lanine, Gleb, 2008. "Liquidity matters: Evidence from the Russian interbank market," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  4. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2007. "Credit chains and bankruptcy propagation in production networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2061-2084, June.
  5. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2010. "The financial accelerator in an evolving credit network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1627-1650, September.
  6. Areski Cousin & Diana Dorobantu & Didier Rulli�re, 2013. "An extension of Davis and Lo's contagion model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 407-420, February.
  7. Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce Greenwald & Alberto Russo & Joseph Stiglitz, 2009. "Business fluctuations and bankruptcy avalanches in an evolving network economy," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 195-212, November.
  8. Stefania Vitali & Stefano Battiston & Mauro Gallegati, . "Financial fragility and distress propagation in a network of regions," Working Papers ETH-RC-12-016, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
  9. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
  10. Dell’Aquila, Crescenzo & Eboli, Mario, 4. "Financing production with liquidity constraints: the role of trade credit in agro-food supply chains," Politica Agricola Internazionale - International Agricultural Policy, Edizioni L’Informatore Agrario, issue 4.
  11. Hazama, Makoto & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2012. "Measuring the Systemic Risk in Interfirm Transaction Networks," Working Paper Series 20, Center for Interfirm Network, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  12. Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce C. Greenwald & Alberto Russo & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2008. "Financially Constrained Fluctuations in an Evolving Network Economy," NBER Working Papers 14112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Nuno Silva, 2010. "Inter-Sector Relations in the Portuguese Economy: an Application of Contingent," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  14. Joseph E Stiglitz & Mauro Gallegati, 2011. "Heterogeneous Interacting Agent Models for Understanding Monetary Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(1), pages 6-12.
  15. Jacobson, Tor & von Schedvin, Erik, 2012. "Trade Credit and the Propagation of Corporate Failure: An Empirical Analysis," Working Paper Series 263, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  16. Domenico Gatti & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati, 2010. "Complex agent-based macroeconomics: a manifesto for a new paradigm," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 111-135, December.
  17. Peter Broer & Jürgen Antony, 2013. "Financial Shocks and Economic Activity in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 260, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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