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Are emerging market currency crises predictable? A test

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Author Info
Tuomas A. Peltonen () (European Central Bank, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the predictability of emerging market currency crises by comparing the often used probit model to a new method, namely a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network (ANN) model. According to the results, both models were able to signal currency crises reasonably well in-sample, but the forecasting power of these models out-ofsample was found to be rather poor. Only in the case of Russian (1998) crisis were both models able to signal the crisis well in advance. The results reinforced the view that developing a stable model that can predict or even explain currency crises is a challenging task. JEL Classification: F31; E44; C25; C23; C45.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 571.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060571

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Keywords: Currency crises; emerging markets; artificial neural networks.;

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lorenzo Cappiello & Peter Hördahl & Arjan Kadareja & Simone Manganelli, 2006. "The impact of the euro on financial markets," Working Paper Series 598, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Tobias Knedlik & Rolf Scheufele, 2007. "Three methods of forecasting currency crises: Which made the run in signaling the South African currency crisis of June 2006?," IWH Discussion Papers 17-07, Halle Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Tomas Slacik, . "On the determinants of currency crises: The role of model uncertainty," Working Papers 2008-03, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck. [Downloadable!]
  4. Tobias Knedlik, 2006. "Signaling currency crises in South Africa," IWH Discussion Papers 19-06, Halle Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Matthew S. Yiu & Alex Ho & Lu Jin, 2009. "Econometric Approach to Early Warnings of Vulnerability in the Banking System and Currency Markets for Hong Kong and Other EMEAP Economies," Working Papers 0908, Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Downloadable!]
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