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The determinants of ‘domestic’ original sin in emerging market economies

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Author Info
Arnaud Mehl () (European Central Bank, Postfach 160319, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
Julien Reynaud () (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne,Theory and Applications in Macro and Micro Economics & CNRS(UMR 8059, Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112 Boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75647 Paris Cedex 13, France;)

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Abstract

This paper explains why domestic debt composition in emerging economies is risky. It carries out an analysis of the determinants of ‘domestic’ original sin, which refers to the inability of emerging economies to borrow domestically in local currency, at long maturities and fixed interest rates. The latter is a measure of financial vulnerabilities arising from domestic debt composition, which encompasses maturity mismatches, rollover risk and interest payment contingency. The paper builds on a large dataset compiled by the authors from national sources. It finds that domestic original sin is severe when inflation is lofty, the debt service-to-GDP ratio high, the slope of the yield curve inverted and the investor base narrow. These results suggest that sound macroeconomic policies, attractive long-term yields and policies aimed at widening the investor base are instrumental to reduce domestic debt riskiness and tilt its composition towards safer, long-term, unindexed, local currency instruments.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 560.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050560

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Related research
Keywords: Original sin; domestic debt; emerging economies;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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  1. Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2007. "Managing new-style currency crises: the swan diagram approach revisited," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 583-606. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Anastasia Guscina, 2008. "Impact of Macroeconomic, Political, and Institutional Factors on the Structure of Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/205, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Anastasia Guscina & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries: A New Data Set," IMF Working Papers 06/98, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Arnaud Mehl & Lorenzo Cappiello, 2007. "Uncovered interest oparity at distant horizons - evidence on emerging economies & nonlinearities," Working Paper Series 801, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Barbara Fritz & Laurissa Mühlich, 2006. "Regional Monetary Integration among Developing Countries: New Opportunities for Macroeconomic Stability beyond the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas?," GIGA Working Paper Series 38, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-15.


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