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How should central banks communicate? Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Michael Ehrmann () (Correspondence to: European Central Bank, Postfach 160319, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany )
Marcel Fratzscher () (European Central Bank, Postfach 160319, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany )
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The paper shows that central bank communication is a key determinant of the market’s ability to anticipate monetary policy decisions and the future path of interest rates. Comparing communication policies by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the ECB since 1999, we find that communicating the diversity of views among committee members about monetary policy lowers the market’s ability to anticipate policy decisions as well as the future path of interest rates. This effect is sizeable, accounting for instance for one third to half of the prediction errors of FOMC policy decisions. By contrast, individualistic communication regarding the economic outlook is found to be beneficial for the Federal Reserve, enabling market participants to better anticipate the future path of interest rates. Thus, it is the collegiality of views on monetary policy but the diversity of views on the economic outlook that enhance the effectiveness of central bank communication.
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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number
557.
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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2005Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050557Contact details of provider: Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany Phone: +49 69 1344 0 Fax: +49 69 1344 6000 Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: Communication ; monetary policy ; committee ; effectiveness ; economic outlook ; Federal Reserve ; Bank of England ; European Central Bank. ; Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
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