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Lending booms in the new EU Member States - will euro adoption matter?

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Author Info
Michal Brzoza-Brzezina () (National Bank of Poland and Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland.)

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Abstract

The paper analyses the potential for lending booms in the three biggest new EU Member States (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) during the process of euro adoption. Experiences of some old members (Greece, Ireland and Portugal) and the econometric evidence speak in favour of strong loan increases in Hungary and Poland even though their magnitude may be smaller than in the case of those recently recorded in Ireland and Portugal. Due to estimation problems, the situation in the Czech Republic was more difficult to foresee, but given almost complete interest rate convergence with the euro area only modest increases in lending should be expected there. In conclusion, it may be stated that, given the currently available information, no substantial risk to the banking sectors of the new Member States should be expected.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 543.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050543

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Related research
Keywords: lending booms euro area banking sector stability new Member States.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  4. György Szapáry, 2001. "Banking Sector Reform in Hungary: Lessons Learned, Current Trends and Prospects," MNB Working Papers 2001/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
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  14. Paulo Flavio Nacif Drummond & Zuzana Murgasova & Susan Schadler & Rachel van Elkan & Louis Kuijs, 2005. "Adopting the Euro in Central Europe: Challenges of the Next Step in European Integration," IMF Occasional Papers 234, International Monetary Fund.
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  16. Alessandro Calza & Joao Sousa & Marta Manrique Simon, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 202, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco M. Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Roberto Sabbatini & Fernando Martins & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmun, 2005. "Sticky prices in the euro area - a summary of new micro evidence," Working Paper Series 563, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna, 2007. "Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?," MPRA Paper 6759, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. António Afonso, 2005. "Ricardian fiscal regimes in the European Union," Working Paper Series 558, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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