Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Lending booms in the new EU Member States: will euro adoption matter?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal

Abstract

The paper analyses the potential for lending booms in the three biggest new EU Member States (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) during the process of euro adoption. Experiences of some old members (Greece, Ireland and Portugal) and the econometric evidence speak in favour of strong loan increases in Hungary and Poland even though their magnitude may be smaller than in the case of those recently recorded in Ireland and Portugal. Due to estimation problems, the situation in the Czech Republic was more difficult to foresee, but given almost complete interest rate convergence with the euro area only modest increases in lending should be expected there. In conclusion, it may be stated that, given the currently available information, no substantial risk to the banking sectors of the new Member States should be expected. JEL Classification: E51, E58, G21

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp543.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0543.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050543

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Email:

Related research

Keywords: banking sector stability; euro area; lending booms; new Member States;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  2. Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Calza, Alessandro & Gartner, Christine & Sousa, João, 2001. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0055, European Central Bank.
  5. Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
  6. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Landerretche, Oscar & Valdés, Rodrigo, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," CEPR Discussion Papers 2811, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Boom-Bust Cycles in Middle Income Countries: Facts and Explanation," CESifo Working Paper Series 755, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2003. "Searching for the Natural Rate of Interest: a Euro-Area Perspective," Working Papers 84, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  9. Philipp Hartmann & Stefan Straetmans & Casper G. De Vries, 2005. "Banking System Stability: A Cross-Atlantic Perspective," NBER Working Papers 11698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ivanna Vladkova Hollar & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Carlo Cottarelli, 2003. "Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties," IMF Working Papers 03/213, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Jakub Borowski & Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2004. "Designing Poland's Macroeconomic Strategy on the Way to the Euro Area," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 10, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  12. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, 2006. "The information content of the neutral rate of interest," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(2), pages 391-412, 04.
  13. György Szapáry, 2001. "Banking Sector Reform in Hungary: Lessons Learned, Current Trends and Prospects," MNB Working Papers 2001/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  14. Patrick Honohan, 1997. "Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: Diagnosis and predictions," BIS Working Papers 39, Bank for International Settlements.
  15. Markku Lanne, 2006. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1157-1168.
  16. Calza, Alessandro & Manrique, Marta & Sousa, João, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 0202, European Central Bank.
  17. Jesus Crespo-Cuaremsa & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald, 2003. "Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 60-80 Bank for International Settlements.
  18. Boris Hofmann, 2001. "The determinants of private sector credit in industrialised countries: do property prices matter?," BIS Working Papers 108, Bank for International Settlements.
  19. Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Sirtaine, Sophie & Skamnelos, Ilias, 2007. "Credit growth in emerging Europe : a cause for stability concerns?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4281, The World Bank.
  2. Burcu Aydin, 2008. "Banking Structure and Credit Growth in Central and Eastern European Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/215, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Man-Keung Tang, 2007. "Private-Sector Financial Liabilities in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 07/118, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Sophie Brana & Delphine Lahet, 2011. "THE DEPENDENCE OF CEECs ON FOREIGN BANK CLAIMS: DIRECT AND INDIRECT RISKS OF CAPITAL WITHDRAWAL," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1023, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  5. Festic, Mejra & Krizanic, France, 2011. "The Introduction of the Common Currency in Slovenia," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 88-105, March.
  6. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Pascal Jacquinot & Marcin Kolasa, 2014. "Can We Prevent Boom-Bust Cycles During Euro Area Accession?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 35-69, February.
  7. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna, 2010. "Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?," Working Paper Series 1187, European Central Bank.
  8. Mejra Festić & Dejan Romih, 2008. "Cyclicality of the banking sector performance and macro environment in the Czech republic, Slovakia and Slovenia," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2008(2), pages 99-117.
  9. Joanna Beza-Bojanowska & Ronald MacDonald, 2009. "The Behavioural Zloty/Euro Equilibrium Exchange Rate," CESifo Working Paper Series 2568, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Alenka Kavkler & Mejra Festić, 2010. "The Trade Deficit and Banking Sector Results in Romania and Bulgaria," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(27), pages 199-213, February.
  11. Agnieszka Stążka-Gawrysiak, 2011. "Poland on the road to the euro: How serious is the risk of boom-bust cycles after the euro adoption? An empirical analysis," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 103, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  12. Mejra Festić & Sebastijan Repina & Alenka Kavkler, 2009. "The overheating of five EU new member states and cyclicality of systemic risk in the banking sector," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 219-232, May.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050543. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.