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Explaining exchange rate dynamics: the uncovered equity return parity condition

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  • Cappiello, Lorenzo
  • De Santis, Roberto A.

Abstract

By employing Lucas’ (1982) model, this study proposes an arbitrage relationship – the Uncovered Equity Return Parity (URP) condition – to explain the dynamics of exchange rates. When expected equity returns in a country/region are lower than expected equity returns in another country/region, the currency associated with the market offering lower returns is expected to appreciate. First, we test the URP assuming that investors are risk neutral and next we relax this hypothesis. The resulting risk premia are proxied by economic variables, which are related to the business cycle. We employ differentials in corporate earnings’ growth rates, short-term interest rate changes, annual inflation rates, and net equity flows. The URP explains a large fraction of the variability of some European currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar. When confronted with the naïve random walk model, the URP for the EUR/USD performs better in terms of forecasts for a set of alternative statistics. JEL Classification: D82, G14, G15

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0529.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050529

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Keywords: asset pricing; foreign exchange markets; GMM; random walk; UIP;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Thomas Nitschka, 2007. "Consumption growth, uncovered equity parity and the cross-section of returns on foreign currencies," IEW - Working Papers 340, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  2. Weber, Enzo, 2007. "Who Leads Financial Markets?," MPRA Paper 5099, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2007.
  3. Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2007. "The uncovered return parity condition," Working Paper Series 0812, European Central Bank.
  4. Fidora, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Thimann, Christian, 2006. "Home bias in global bond and equity markets: the role of real exchange rate volatility," Working Paper Series 0685, European Central Bank.
  5. Hau, Harald & Rey, Hélène, 2008. "Global Portfolio Rebalancing Under the Microscope," CEPR Discussion Papers 6901, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Georgios, Katechos, 2011. "On the relationship between exchange rates and equity returns: A new approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 550-559, October.
  7. Hadiwibowo, Yuniarto & Komatsu, Masaaki, 2011. "Trilemma and macroeconomic policies under different financial structures in Indonesia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 302-310, August.
  8. Curcuru, Stephanie E. & Thomas, Charles P. & Warnock, Francis E. & Wongswan, Jon, 2014. "Uncovered Equity Parity and Rebalancing in International Portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 1103, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Bonpasse, Morrison, 2006. "The Single Global Currency: Common Cents for the World," MPRA Paper 1175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Enzo Weber, 2010. "Volatility and causality in Asia Pacific financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(16), pages 1269-1292.
  11. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2014. "Uncovered Equity Parity and Rebalancing in International Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 19963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Bonpasse, Morrison, 2009. "The single global currency - common cents for the world (2008 Edition)," MPRA Paper 14756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Heimonen, Kari, 2009. "The euro-dollar exchange rate and equity flows," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 202-209, October.
  14. Arash, Aloosh, 2011. "Variance Risk Premium Differentials and Foreign Exchange Returns," MPRA Paper 40829, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Aug 2012.
  15. Anil Mishra, 2011. "Australia’s equity home bias and real exchange rate volatility," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 223-244, August.

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