How successful are exchange rate communication and interventions? Evidence from time-series and event-study approaches

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How successful are exchange rate communication and interventions? Evidence from time-series and event-study approaches

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Marcel Fratzscher () (European Central Bank, DG-Research, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)

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Marcel Fratzscher

Abstract

The paper analyses whether communication and actual interventions in FX markets are successful in moving exchange rates over the medium- to long-run. It compares empirical evidence based on time-series analysis with that obtained from an eventstudy approach. Both the time-series approach based on option contracts and the event-study methodology yield compelling evidence that communication and actual interventions tend to be successful in moving exchange rates in the desired direction contemporaneously as well as over the medium- to long-term. This finding is consistent with recent work on microstructure models that emphasises the importance of dynamic effects of news and fundamentals on exchange rates.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 528.

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Length: 58 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050528

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2005-11-12 (All new papers)
NEP-IFN-2005-11-12 (International Finance)
NEP-MAC-2005-11-12 (Macroeconomics)
NEP-MON-2005-11-12 (Monetary Economics)

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Vitale, Paolo, 1999. "Sterilised central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 245-267, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71, pages 1-11, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Michael Lamla & Sarah M. Rupprecht, 2006. "The Impact of ECB Communication on Financial Market Expectations," Working papers 06-135, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
Elizaveta Krylova & Jussi Nikkinen & Sami Vähämaa, 2005. "Cross-dynamics of volatility term structures implied by foreign exchange options," Working Paper Series 530, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco M. Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Roberto Sabbatini & Fernando Martins & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmun, 2005. "Sticky prices in the euro area - a summary of new micro evidence," Working Paper Series 563, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- L. J. Álvarez & E. Dhyne & M. Hoeberichts & C. Kwapil & H. Le Bihan, 2005. "Sticky Prices in the Euro Area: a Summary of New Micro Evidence," DNB Working Papers 062, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
- Álvarez, Luís & Dhyne, Emmanuel & Hoeberichts, Marco & Kwapil, Claudia & Le Bihan, Hervé & Lünnemann, Patrick & Martins, Fernando & Sabbatini, Roberto & Stahl, Harald & Vermeulen, Philip & Vilmune, 2006. "Sticky prices in the euro area: a summary of new micro evidence," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
- Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco M. Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmun, 2005. "Sticky prices in the euro area: a summary of new micro evidence," Banco de EspaÃ±a Working Papers 0542, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
- Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Sticky Prices in the Euro Area: A Summary of New Micro-Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 575-584, 04-05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Balázs Égert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," Working Papers 134, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Balázs Égert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
- Egert, Balazs, 2007. "Central bank interventions, communication and interest rate policy in emerging European economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 387-413, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
António Afonso, 2005. "Ricardian fiscal regimes in the European Union," Working Paper Series 558, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- António Afonso, 2005. "Ricardian Fiscal Regimes in the European Union," Working Papers 2005/18, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
- António Afonso, 2008. "Ricardian fiscal regimes in the European Union," Empirica, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 313-334, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Balázs Égert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication & Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp846, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
Andreas Schabert, 2005. "Discretionary policy, multiple equilibria, and monetary instruments," Working Paper Series 533, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Andreas Schabert, 2005. "Discretionary Policy, Multiple Equilibria, and Monetary Instruments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-098/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
- Schabert, Andreas, 2005. "Discretionary Policy, Multiple Equilibria, and Monetary Instruments," CEPR Discussion Papers 5400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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