Distilling co-movements from persistent macro and financial series
AbstractWe provide a methodology to disentangle the long-run relation between variables from their own dynamics. Macroeconomic and aggregate financial series have a high degree of inertia. If this persistence is not properly accounted for, spurious correlations will give rise to paradoxes. Our procedure shows that the Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) puzzle evaporates when the dynamics are properly modelled: the forward premium loses all the predictive power that it seemed to have. We also show how the stock market grows in long cycles around a trend given by GDP, in a stable relation that does not break. JEL Classification: E37
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Date of creation: Sep 2005
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-11-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-FMK-2005-11-12 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2005-11-12 (Macroeconomics)
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