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Distilling co-movements from persistent macro and financial series

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Author Info
Karim Abadir () (University of York, Heslington,York YO10 5DD, United Kingdom)
Gabriel Talmain () (University of York, Heslington,York YO10 5DD, United Kingdom)

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Abstract

We provide a methodology to disentangle the long-run relation between variables from their own dynamics. Macroeconomic and aggregate financial series have a high degree of inertia. If this persistence is not properly accounted for, spurious correlations will give rise to paradoxes. Our procedure shows that the Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) puzzle evaporates when the dynamics are properly modelled: the forward premium loses all the predictive power that it seemed to have. We also show how the stock market grows in long cycles around a trend given by GDP, in a stable relation that does not break.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 525.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050525

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Related research
Keywords: ACF-based GLS procedure Autocorrelation Function Long memory Nonlinearities Uncovered Interest Parity anomaly.

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Karim Abadir & Giovanni Caggiano & Gabriel Talmain, 2005. "Nelson-Plosser Revisited: the ACF Approach," Working Papers 2005_7, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  2. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michael J. Cooper & Roberto C. Gutierrez & Allaudeen Hameed, 2004. "Market States and Momentum," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1345-1365, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Chambers, Marcus J, 1998. "Long Memory and Aggregation in Macroeconomic Time Series," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1053-72, November.
    Other versions:
  7. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Karim M. Abadir & Kaddour Hadri & Elias Tzavalis, 1999. "The Influence of VAR Dimensions on Estimator Biases," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 163-182, January.
    Other versions:
  10. Diebold, Francis X & Gardeazabal, Javier & Yilmaz, Kamil, 1994. " On Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 727-35, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Karim M. Abadir & A. M. Robert Taylor, . "On the Definitions of (Co-)Integration," Discussion Papers 97/19, Department of Economics, University of York.
  13. Karim Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, . "Aggregation, Persistence and Volatility in a Macromodel," Discussion Papers 01/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
    Other versions:
  14. Giuseppe Cavaliere, 2001. "Testing the unit root hypothesis using generalized range statistics," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 39.
  15. Maddala, G S & Rao, A S, 1973. "Tests for Serial Correlation in Regression Models with Lagged Dependent Variables and Serially Correlated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 761-74, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Charles Engel, 1996. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1987. " Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonalit y," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 557-81, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Accounting for Exchange Rate Variability in Present-Value Models When the Discount Factor is Near One," NBER Working Papers 10267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gianluca Moretti, 2007. "Detecting long memory co-movements in macroeconomic time series," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 642, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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