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Non-Keynesian effects of fiscal contraction in new member states

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  • Rzonca, Andrzej
  • Cizkowicz, Piotr

Abstract

Many economists are convinced that longer-term benefits from fiscal consolidation are in a trade-off with short-term deceleration in output growth. However, more recent research suggests that curbing fiscal imbalances contributes to faster growth already in the short term. This paper is about such non-Keynesian effects. Section two systematizes theoretical explanations. Section three reviews previous empirical research. Section four uses panel estimation techniques to examine the consequences of fiscal consolidation in New Member States. This analysis provides evidence that in those countries fiscal consolidation contributed substantially to the acceleration of output growth even in the short term. However, the exact channels through which non-Keynesian effects occurred could not be unambiguously identified in the paper. Section five takes the new step of a qualitative analysis of the outcomes of strong fiscal adjustments in the countries under consideration. That analysis shows that their experiences were quite similar to those of developed countries. JEL Classification: E62, E65, C33

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0519.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050519

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Keywords: fiscal consolidation; new Member States; non-Keynesian effects;

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References

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  1. Pagès, Henri & Humphrey, David, 2005. "Settlement finality as a public good in large-value payment systems," Working Paper Series 0506, European Central Bank.
  2. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Grüner, Hans Peter & Hayo, Bernd & Hefeker, Carsten, 2005. "Unions, wage setting and monetary policy uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0490, European Central Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Alex Segura-Ubiergo & Alejandro Simone & Sanjeev Gupta & Qiang Cui, 2010. "New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 18-37, March.
  2. Mehrotra, Aaron & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Eller, Markus, 2011. "The Economic transmission of fiscal policy shocks from Western to Eastern Europe," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  3. Neicheva, Maria, 2007. "Non-Keynesian effects of Government Spending: Some implications for the Stability and Growth Pact," MPRA Paper 5277, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Nickel, Christiane & Tudyka, Andreas, 2013. "Fiscal stimulus in times of high debt: reconsidering multipliers and twin deficits," Working Paper Series 1513, European Central Bank.
  5. Zsolt Darvas, 2010. "The Impact of the Crisis on Budget Policy in Central and Eastern Europe," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 1-42.
  6. Tudor Florin, 2011. "Causes And Effects Of Romania Deepening Financial Crisis. Short Term Means," Perspectives of Innovation in Economics and Business (PIEB), Prague Development Center, vol. 8(2), pages 10-16, August.
  7. Bikai, Landry, 2010. "Les Effets Non Lineaires Des Deficits Budgetaires Sur L´Activite Economique En Cemac
    [Threshold Effects of Budgetary Policy on Economic Growth in Cemac]
    ," MPRA Paper 24524, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Besnik Fetai, 2013. "Assessing Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in a Small Open Economy: the Case Republic of Macedonia," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 89-104, April.
  9. Vladimir Vladimirov & Maria Neicheva, 2008. "The Stabilizing Role of Fiscal Policy: Theoretical Background and Empirical Evidence," IBSU Scientific Journal, International Black Sea University, vol. 2(1), pages 7-22.
  10. Maria Neycheva, 2007. "Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Cumulative Production in the Bulgarian Economy," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 82-101.
  11. Leszek Balcerowicz, 2006. "Enlargement, the Lisbon Agenda, and the Economic Development of Member States," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(3), pages 261-273, September.
  12. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2011:i:2:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Mikek, Peter, 2008. "Alternative monetary policies and fiscal regime in new EU members," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 335-353, December.
  14. Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2012. "Convergence crisis: economic crisis and convergence in the European Union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 297-322, September.

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