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An international analysis of earnings, stock prices and bond yields

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Author Info
Alain Durré () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
Pierre Giot () (Department of Business Administration & CEREFIM, University of Namur and CORE at Université catholique de Louvain.)

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Abstract

This paper assesses the possible contemporaneous relationship between stock index prices, earnings and long-term government bond yields for a large number of countries and over a time period that spans several decades. In a cointegration framework, our analysis looks at three hypotheses. First, is there a long-term contemporaneous relationship between earnings, stock prices and government bond yields? Second, does a deviation from this possible long-run equilibrium impact stock prices such that the equilibrium is restored? Third, do government bond yields play a significant role in the long-run relationship or does the latter only involve stock prices and earnings? We also study the short-term impact of changes in long-term government bond yields on stock prices and discuss our short-term and long-term results in light of the recent developments regarding the so-called Fed model.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 515.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050515

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Related research
Keywords: Stock indexes; earnings; long-run relationships; interest rates; inflation; market valuation.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Stock Returns and Inflation: A Long-Horizon Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1346-55, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Marshall, David A, 1992. " Inflation and Asset Returns in a Monetary Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1315-42, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," NBER Working Papers 8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. MacDonald, Ronald & Power, David, 1995. "Stock prices, dividends and retention: Long-run relationships and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 135-151, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Kevin J. Lansing, 2004. "Inflation-induced valuation errors in the stock market," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct 29. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Favero, Carlo A. & Mosca, Federico, 2001. "Uncertainty on monetary policy and the expectations model of the term structure of interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 369-375, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Richard D.F. Harris & Rene Sanchez-Valle, 2000. "The Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio and the Predictability of UK and US Equity Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3-4), pages 333-357. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nancy Masschelein, 2007. "Monitoring pro-cyclicality under the capital requirements directive : preliminary concepts for developing a framework," Documents series 200711-22, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  2. Elizaveta Krylova & Jussi Nikkinen & Sami Vähämaa, 2005. "Cross-dynamics of volatility term structures implied by foreign exchange options," Working Paper Series 530, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Joseph Friedman & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2005. "European Stock Market Dynamics Before and After the Introduction of the Euro," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  4. Frédéric Lagneaux, 2008. "Economic Importance of Belgian Transport Logistics," Documents series 200801-01, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  5. Annick Bruggeman, 2007. "Can Excess Liquidity Signal an Asset Price Boom?," Research series 200708-08, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  6. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: better than a random walk?," CORE Discussion Papers 2006089, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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  7. António Afonso, 2005. "Ricardian fiscal regimes in the European Union," Working Paper Series 558, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "Short-term market timing using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2006090, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Frédéric Lagneaux, 2005. "Importance économique du Port Autonome de Liège: rapport 2003," Documents series 200510-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  10. Joachim Keller, 2008. "Agency problems in structured finance – a case study of European CLOs," Documents series 200808-22, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  11. Andreas Schabert, 2005. "Discretionary policy, multiple equilibria, and monetary instruments," Working Paper Series 533, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Helga De Doncker, 2006. "Crédits aux particuliers - Analyse des données de la Centrale des Crédits aux Particuliers," Documents series 200601-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  13. Luis J. Álvarez & Pablo Burriel & Ignacio Hernando, 2005. "Price setting behaviour in Spain: evidence from micro PPI data," Working Paper Series 522, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Philippe Moës, 2006. "The production function approach to the Belgian output gap, Estimation of a Multivariate Structural Time Series Model," Research series 200609-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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  15. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  16. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2006. "A new Keynesian model with unemployment," Research series 200610-4, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Carine Swartenbroekx, 2007. "The gas chain : influence of its specificities on the liberalisation process," Documents series 200711-24, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  18. Guido Wolswijk, 2005. "On some fiscal effects on mortgage debt growth in the EU," Working Paper Series 526, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  19. Joseph Plasmans & Tomasz Michalak & Jorge Fornero, 2006. "Simulation, estimation and welfare implications of monetary policies in a 3-country NOEM model," Research series 200610-6, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  20. François Coppens & David Vivet, 2006. "The single European electricity market: A long road to convergence," Documents series 200605-3, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  21. Philippe Moës, 2008. "Multivariate structural time series models with dual cycles : implications for measurement of output gap and potential growth," Research series 200808-20, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  22. Bandholz, Harm & Clostermann, Joerg & Seitz, Franz, 2007. "Explaining the US Bond Yield Conundrum," MPRA Paper 2386, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  23. François Coppens & Fernando Gonzáles & Gerhard Winkler, 2007. "The performance of credit rating systems in the assessment of collateral used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations," Research series 200710-12, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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