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Productivity shocks, budget deficits and the current account

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Author Info
Matthieu Bussière () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
Marcel Fratzscher () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
Gernot J. Müller () (Goethe University Frankfurt, Mertonstr. 17, D-60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)

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Abstract

Currently the U.S. is experiencing record budget and current account deficits, a phenomenon familiar from the "Twin Deficits" discussion of the 1980s. In contrast, during the 1990s productivity growth has been identified as the primary cause of the US current account deficit. We suggest a theoretical framework which allows to evaluate empirically the relative importance of budget deficits and productivity shocks for the determination of the current account. Using a sample of 21 OECD countries and time series data from 1960 to 2003 we find little evidence for a contemporaneous effect of budget deficits on the current account, while country-specific productivity shocks appear to play a key role.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 509.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050509

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Related research
Keywords: Current account; productivity; investment; budget deficit.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. repec:fth:coluec:759 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Barro, R.J. & Martin, X.S., 1990. "World Real Interest Rates," RCER Working Papers 227, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    Other versions:
  6. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Alesina, A. & Perotti, R., 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Adjustments in OECD Countries," Discussion Papers 1995_25, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  8. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1988. "Budget Deficits and the Balance of Trade," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy: Volume 2, pages 1-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  10. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005. "Expansionary fiscal shocks and the trade deficit," International Finance Discussion Papers 825, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Martin Boileau & Michel Normandin, 2008. "Do Tax Cuts Generate Twin Deficits? A Multi-Country Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 0832, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
  2. Elizaveta Krylova & Jussi Nikkinen & Sami Vähämaa, 2005. "Cross-dynamics of volatility term structures implied by foreign exchange options," Working Paper Series 530, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. José García-Solanes & Jesús Rodríguez López & José Luis Torres Chacón, 2007. "Demand Shocks and Trade Balance Dynamics," Working Papers 07.10, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Christopher Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2005. "Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the Trade Deficit," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 128, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Christiane Nickel & Katja Funke, 2006. "Does Fiscal Policy Matter for the Trade Account? A Panel Cointegration Study," IMF Working Papers 06/147, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Guay C. Lim & Paul D. McNelis, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate and Current Account Dynamics with Sticky Prices and Distortionary Taxes," DNB Working Papers 056, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. António Afonso, 2005. "Ricardian fiscal regimes in the European Union," Working Paper Series 558, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Horag Choi & Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Endogenous Discounting, the World Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account," NBER Working Papers 13571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Marcel Fratzscher & Luciana Juvenal & Lucio Sarno, 2007. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," Working Paper Series 790, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Bems, Rudolfs & Dedola, Luca & Smets, Frank, 2007. "US Imbalances: The Role of Technology and Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6110, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Andreas Schabert, 2005. "Discretionary policy, multiple equilibria, and monetary instruments," Working Paper Series 533, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  12. G. C. Lim & Paul D. McNelis, 2006. "Fiscal and Current Account Balances in a Model with Sticky Prices and Distortionary Taxes," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n21, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  13. Luis J. Álvarez & Pablo Burriel & Ignacio Hernando, 2005. "Price setting behaviour in Spain: evidence from micro PPI data," Working Paper Series 522, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Guido Wolswijk, 2005. "On some fiscal effects on mortgage debt growth in the EU," Working Paper Series 526, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Olivier Cardi & Romain Restout, 2007. "Permanent vs Temporary Fiscal Expansion in a Two-Sector Small Open Economy Model," Working Papers 0720, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Marcel Fratzscher & Roland Straub, 2009. "Asset Prices and Current Account Fluctuations in G7 Economies," Working Paper Series 1014, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Hideki Nishigaki, 2008. "Are the fiscal and monetary policies of the G-7 countries effective in decreasing the U.S. trade deficit?," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 6(27), pages 1-13. [Downloadable!]
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