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Monetary policy predictability in the euro area: an international comparison

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  • Wilhelmsen, Bjørn-Roger
  • Zaghini, Andrea

Abstract

The paper evaluates the ability of market participants to anticipate monetary policy decisions in the euro area and in 13 other countries. First, by looking at the magnitude and the volatility of the changes in the money market rates we show that the days of policy meetings are special days for financial markets. Second, we find that the predictability of the ECB’s monetary policy is fully comparable (and sometimes slightly better) to that of the FED and the Bank of England. Finally, an econometric analysis of the ability of market participants to incorporate in the current money rates the expected changes in the key policy rate shows that in the euro area policy decisions are anticipated well in advance. JEL Classification: E4, E5, G1

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0504.

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Date of creation: Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050504

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Keywords: monetary policy; Money market rates; Predictability;

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References

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  1. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Gaspar, Vitor & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2001. "The ECB Monetary Policy Strategy and the Money Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 325-42, October.
  3. Sager, Michael J. & Taylor, Mark P., 2004. "The impact of European Central Bank Governing Council announcements on the foreign exchange market: a microstructural analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1043-1051.
  4. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 0192, European Central Bank.
  5. Selva Demiralp & Dennis Farley, 2003. "Declining required reserves, funds rate volatility, and open market operations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Bartolini, Leonardo & Bertola, Giuseppe & Prati, Alessandro, 2002. "Day-to-Day Monetary Policy and the Volatility of the Federal Funds Interest Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 137-59, February.
  7. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Geraats, P., 2006. "How transparent are central banks?," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-172467, Tilburg University.
  8. Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "The Fed and Interest Rates - A High-Frequency Identification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 90-95, May.
  9. William Poole & Robert Rasche, 2000. "Perfecting the Market's Knowledge of Monetary Policy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 255-298, December.
  10. Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andres, 2001. "The Microstructure of the Euro Money Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 3081, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "The Euribor Futures Market: Efficiency and the Impact of ECB Policy Announcements," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, 03.
  12. Jonathan Coppel & Ellis Connolly, 2003. "What Do Financial Market Data Tell Us about Monetary Policy Transparency?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  13. Sarno, Lucio & Daniel l Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2003. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 183, Royal Economic Society.
  14. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2003. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 309-28, Winter.
  15. Andrew G Haldane & Vicky Read, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and the yield curve," Bank of England working papers 106, Bank of England.
  16. Bomfim, Antulio N., 2003. "Pre-announcement effects, news effects, and volatility: Monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 133-151, January.
  17. Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?," Working Papers 2002-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  18. Demiralp, Selva & Jorda, Oscar, 2004. "The Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 387-405, June.
  19. Courtenay, Roger & Clare, Andrew, 2001. "What can we learn about monetary policy transparency from financial market data?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Geraats, P. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Cruijsen, C.A.B. van der, 2006. "Does Central Bank Transparency Reduce Interest Rates?," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-178750, Tilburg University.
  2. Marek Rozkrut, 2008. "It’s not only WHAT is said, it’s also WHO the speaker is. Evaluating the effectiveness of central bank communication," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 47, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  3. Canova, Fabio & Favero, Carlo A, 2005. "Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: Lessons from Five Years of ECB and Implications for Turkey," CEPR Discussion Papers 5101, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Fabio Canova & Carlo Favero, 2005. "Monetary policy in the Euro area: Lessons from 5 years of ECB and implications for Turkey," Economics Working Papers 922, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  5. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2010. "The Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on the Yield Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1266-1298, December.
  6. Rozkrut, Marek & Rybinski, Krzysztof & Sztaba, Lucyna & Szwaja, Radoslaw, 2007. "Quest for central bank communication: Does it pay to be "talkative"?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 176-206, March.
  7. Colarossi, Silvio & Zaghini, Andrea, 2007. "Gradualism, transparency and improved operational framework: A look at the overnight volatility transmission," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  8. Sébastien Kraenzlin, 2007. "The characteristics and development of the Swiss franc repurchase agreement market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 241-261, June.
  9. Bennani, Hamza, 2014. "The art of central banks' forward guidance at the zero lower bound," MPRA Paper 57043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Silvio Colarossi & Andrea Zaghini, 2009. "Gradualism, transparency and the improved operational framework: a look at the overnight volatility transmission," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 710, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  11. Bennani, Hamza, 2014. "Does one word fit all? The asymmetric effects of central banks' communication policy," MPRA Paper 57150, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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