Measuring comovements by regression quantiles
AbstractThis paper develops a rigorous econometric framework to investigate the structure of codependence between random variables and to test whether it changes over time. Our approach is based on the computation - over both a test and a benchmark period - of the conditional probability that a random variable yt is lower than a given quantile, when the other random variable xt is also lower than its corresponding quantile, for any set of prespecified quantiles. Time-varying conditional quantiles are modeled via regression quantiles. The conditional probability is estimated through a simple OLS regression. We illustrate the methodology by investigating the impact of the crises of the 1990s on the major Latin American equity markets returns. Our results document significant increases in equity return co-movements during crises consistent with the presence of financial contagion. JEL Classification: C14, C22, G15
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0501.
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alessandro Rebucci, 2003.
"Measuring Contagion With A Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model,"
Working Papers. Serie AD
2003-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Ciccarelli, Matteo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2003. "Measuring contagion with a Bayesian, time-varying coefficient model," Working Paper Series 0263, European Central Bank.
- Alessandro Rebucci & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2003. "Measuring Contagion with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model," IMF Working Papers 03/171, International Monetary Fund.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996.
"Contagious Currency Crises,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Len Umantsev & Victor Chernozhukov, 2001. "Conditional value-at-risk: Aspects of modeling and estimation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 271-292.
- Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda GonzÃ¡lez-Hermosillo, 2004.
"Empirical Modeling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies,"
IMF Working Papers
04/78, International Monetary Fund.
- Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
- Martin, V. & Dungey & M., 2004. "Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 574, Econometric Society.
- Vance L. Martin & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, & Mardi Dungey & Renee A. Fry, 2004. "Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 243, Econometric Society.
- De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000.
"Systemic risk: A survey,"
Working Paper Series
0035, European Central Bank.
- Engle, Robert F & Manganelli, Simone, 1999.
"CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt06m3d6nv, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
- Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2000. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0841, Econometric Society.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
- Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2000.
"A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion,"
NBER Working Papers
7913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Boyson, Nicole M. & Stahel, Christof W. & Stulz, Rene M., 2011. "Liquidity Shocks and Hedge Fund Contagion," Working Paper Series 2011-12, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Benjamin Hamidi & Emmanuel Jurczenko & Bertrand Maillet, 2009. "D'un multiple conditionnel en assurance de portefeuille : CAViaR pour les gestionnaires ?," Post-Print halshs-00389773, HAL.
- Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2010.
"Gold and the U.S. Dollar: Tales from the turmoil,"
22407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Abad, Pilar & Chuliá, Helena & Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2009.
"EMU and European government bond market integration,"
Working Paper Series
1079, European Central Bank.
- Abad, Pilar & Chuliá, Helena & Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2010. "EMU and European government bond market integration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2851-2860, December.
- Cappiello, Lorenzo & Gérard, Bruno & Kadareja, Arjan & Manganelli, Simone, 2006. "Financial integration of new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 0683, European Central Bank.
- Lucía Cuadro Sáez & Marcel Fratzscher & Christian Thimann, 2007.
"The transmission of emerging market shocks to global equity markets,"
Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers
0727, Banco de Espa�a.
- Cuadro-Sáez, Lucía & Fratzscher, Marcel & Thimann, Christian, 2009. "The transmission of emerging market shocks to global equity markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 2-17, January.
- Cuadro Sáez, Lucía & Fratzscher, Marcel & Thimann, Christian, 2007. "The transmission of emerging market shocks to global equity markets," Working Paper Series 0724, European Central Bank.
- Grzegorz Hałaj & Christoffer Kok, 2013.
"Assessing interbank contagion using simulated networks,"
Computational Management Science,
Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 157-186, June.
- Hałaj, Grzegorz & Kok, Christoffer, 2013. "Assessing interbank contagion using simulated networks," Working Paper Series 1506, European Central Bank.
- Beine, Michel & Cosma, Antonio & Vermeulen, Robert, 2010.
"The dark side of global integration: Increasing tail dependence,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 184-192, January.
- Michel Beine & Antonio Cosma & Robert Vermeulen, 2008. "The Dark Side of Global Integration: Increasing Tail Dependence," CREA Discussion Paper Series 08-03, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
- Antonio Cosma & firstname.lastname@example.org & Michel Beine & Robert Vermeulen, 2009. "The Dark Side of Global Integration: Increasing Tail Dependence," LSF Research Working Paper Series 09-05, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
- Gross, Marco & Kok, Christoffer, 2013. "Measuring contagion potential among sovereigns and banks using a mixed-cross-section GVAR," Working Paper Series 1570, European Central Bank.
- Nicole M. Boyson & Christof W. Stahel & René M. Stulz, 2010. "Hedge Fund Contagion and Liquidity Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1789-1816, October.
- Paulo Horta & Carlos Mendes & Isabel Vieira, 2008. "Contagion effects of the US Subprime Crisis on Developed Countries," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2008_08, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
- Apostolos Thomadakis, 2012. "Measuring Financial Contagion with Extreme Coexceedances," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1112, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Manner, Hans & Candelon, Bertrand, 2007. "Testing for Asset Market Linkages: A new Approach based on Time-Varying Copulas," Research Memorandum 052, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.