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Early-warning tools to forecast general government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal indicators

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Author Info
Javier J. Pérez () (Centro de Estudios Andaluces (centrA), c/ Bailén 50, 41001 Seville, Spain)

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Abstract

In this paper I evaluate the usefulness of a set of fiscal indicators as early-warning-signal tools for annual General Government Net Lending developments for some EMU countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, Finland) and an EMU aggregate. The indicators are mainly based on monthly and quarterly public accounts’ figures. I illustrate how the dynamics of the indicators show a remarkable performance when anticipating general government accounts’ movements, both in qualitative and in quantitative terms.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 497.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050497

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Related research
Keywords: Leading indicators; Fiscal forecasting and monitoring; General Government Deficit; European Monetary Union.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Artis, M. & Marcellino, M., 1999. "Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC," Economics Working Papers eco99/22, European University Institute.
    Other versions:
  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Ana Lamo, 2004. "Short-term monitoring of fiscal policy discipline," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 247-265. [Downloadable!]
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  5. MOULIN, Laurent & SALTO, Matteo & SILVESTRINI, Andrea & VEREDAS, David, 2004. "Using intra annual information to forecast the annual state deficits : the case of France," CORE Discussion Papers 2004048, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  6. Fullerton, Thomas Jr., 1989. "A composite approach to forecasting state government revenues: Case study of the Idaho sales tax," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 373-380. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  9. Keereman, F., 1999. "The Track Record of the Commission Forecasts," European Economy - Economic Papers 137, Commission of the EC, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN).
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Isabel Argimón & Francisco Martí, 2007. "Available data on-budget and off-budget activities of Spanish central, state and local governments," MNB Conference Volume, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 1(1), pages 43-54, December. [Downloadable!]
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