Early-warning tools to forecast general government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal indicators
AbstractIn this paper I evaluate the usefulness of a set of fiscal indicators as early-warning-signal tools for annual General Government Net Lending developments for some EMU countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, Finland) and an EMU aggregate. The indicators are mainly based on monthly and quarterly public accounts’ figures. I illustrate how the dynamics of the indicators show a remarkable performance when anticipating general government accounts’ movements, both in qualitative and in quantitative terms. JEL Classification: C53, E6, H6
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0497.
Date of creation: Jun 2005
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Other versions of this item:
- Javier J. Pérez, 2005. "Early-warning tools to forecast General Government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal Indicators," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2005/14, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-10-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2005-10-04 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2005-10-04 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2005-10-04 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2005-10-04 (Public Economics)
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