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Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach

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  • Dossche, Maarten
  • Everaert, Gerdie

Abstract

Time series estimates of inflation persistence incur an upward bias if shifts in the inflation target of the central bank remain unaccounted for. Using a structural time series approach we measure different sorts of inflation persistence allowing for an unobserved time-varying inflation target. Unobserved components are identified using Kalman filtering and smoothing techniques. Posterior densities of the model parameters and the unobserved components are obtained in a Bayesian framework based on importance sampling. We find that inflation persistence, expressed by the half-life of a shock, can range from 1 quarter in case of a cost-push shock to several years for a shock to long-run inflation expectations or the output gap. JEL Classification: C11, C13, C22, C32, E31

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0495.

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Date of creation: Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050495

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Keywords: Bayesian Analysis; Inflation persistence; inflation target; Kalman filter;

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Cited by:
  1. Vicente da Gama Machado & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2013. "Measuring Inflation Persistence in Brazil Using a Multivariate Model," Working Papers Series 331, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  2. Harvey, A., 2008. "Modeling the Phillips curve with unobserved components," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0805, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Gianni Amisano & Oreste Tristani, 2007. "Euro area inflation persistence in an estimated nonlinear DSGE model," Working Papers 0704, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  4. Kenji Moriyama, 2011. "Inflation Inertia in Egypt and its Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 11/160, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Ian Babetskii & Ales Bulir & Fabrizio Coricelli & Jan Filacek & Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova, 2008. "CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Ten Years of Inflation Targeting," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 6, number rb06/1 edited by Ian Babetskii & Katerina Smidkova, August.
  6. Rolando Peláez, 2012. "The housing bubble in real-time: the end of innocence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 211-225, January.
  7. Andrew Phiri, 2012. "Threshold effects and inflation persistence in South Africa," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 247-269, August.
  8. Nicholas Apergis, 2013. "The Stylized Facts of Greek Inflation: New Evidence on Persistence," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(1), pages 51-71, March.
  9. Zsolt Darvas & Balazs Varga, 2013. "Inflation persistence in central and eastern European countries," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1327, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  10. Fernando Nascimento De Oliveira, 2014. "Análise Empírica Entre Países Da Persistência Inflacionária," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 045, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  11. Steffen Henzel, 2008. "Learning Trend Inflation – Can Signal Extraction Explain Survey Forecasts?," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 55, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Zsuzsanna Zsibók & Balázs Varga, 2012. "Inflation Persistence in Hungary: a Spatial Analysis," Working Papers 1203, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  14. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  15. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova, 2007. "Inflation Persistence in New EU Member States: Is It Different Than in the Euro Area Members?," Working Papers 2007/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  16. Fernando N. de Oliveira & Myrian Petrassi, 2010. "Is Inflation Persistence Over?," Working Papers Series 230, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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