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Unions, wage setting and monetary policy uncertainty

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  • Grüner, Hans Peter
  • Hayo, Bernd
  • Hefeker, Carsten

Abstract

Recent theoretical research has studied extensively the link between wage setting and monetary policymaking in unionized economies. This paper addresses the question of the role of monetary uncertainty from both an empirical and theoretical point of view. Our analysis is based on a simple model that derives the influence of monetary uncertainty on unionized wage setting. We construct an indicator of monetary policy uncertainty and test our model with data for the G5 countries. The central finding is that monetary policy uncertainty has a negative impact on nominal wage growth in countries where wage setting is relatively centralized. This result is consistent with recent theoretical approaches to central bank transparency and wage setting. JEL Classification: E58

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0490.

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Date of creation: Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050490

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Keywords: centralized wage setting; Monetary policy uncertainty; union behavior;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mohr, Matthias, 2005. "A trend-cycle(-season) filter," Working Paper Series 0499, European Central Bank.
  2. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2011. "Robust central banking under wage bargaining: Is monetary policy transparency beneficial?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 432-438, January.
  3. Carsten Hefeker & Blandine Zimmer, 2009. "Uncertainty and fiscal policy in an asymmetric monetary union," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200913, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  4. Carsten Hefeker & Blandine Zimmer, 2010. "Central bank independence and conservatism under uncertainty: Substitutes or complements?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201001, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  5. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2011. "Monetary strictness and labour market outcomes under incomplete transparency," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 95-99, June.
  6. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2012. "Inflation uncertainty and unemployment uncertainty: Why transparency about monetary policy targets matters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 119-122.
  7. Daniel Laskar, 2008. "Monetary policy uncertainty and macroeconomic performance: An extended non-bayesian framework," PSE Working Papers halshs-00586883, HAL.
  8. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2008. "Central bank's conservativeness and transparency," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(4), pages 179-187, December.
  9. Rzonca, Andrzej & Cizkowicz, Piotr, 2005. "Non-Keynesian effects of fiscal contraction in new member states," Working Paper Series 0519, European Central Bank.
  10. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2014. "Central Bank Communication in the Financial Crisis: Evidence from a Survey of Financial Market Participants," Research Papers in Economics 2014-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
  11. Bernd Hayo & Ummad Mazhar, 2011. "Monetary Policy Committee Transparency: Measurement,Determinants, and Economic Effects," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201140, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  12. Eleftherios Spyromitros & Blandine Zimmer, 2007. "Monetary accommodation and unemployment: Why central bank transparency matters," Working Papers of BETA 2007-27, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  13. Hefeker, Carsten & Zimmer, Blandine, 2011. "The optimal choice of central bank independence and conservatism under uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 595-606.
  14. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier & Matthias Uhl, 2014. "Topics in Fiscal Policy: Evidence from a Representative Survey of the German Population," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201412, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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