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The performance and robustness of interest-rate rules in models of the euro area

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Author Info
Ramón Adalid () (Directorate General Statistics, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
Günter Coenen () (Directorate General Research, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
Peter McAdam () (Directorate General Research, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
Stefano Siviero () (Economic Research Department, Banca d’Italia, Rome, Italy)

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Abstract

In this paper, we examine the performance and robustness of optimised interest-rate rules in four models of the euro area which differ considerably in terms of size, degree of aggregation, relevance of forward-looking behavioural elements and adherence to micro-foundations. Our findings are broadly consistent with results documented for models of the U.S. economy: backward-looking models require relatively more aggressive policies with at most moderate inertia; rules that are optimised for such models tend to perform reasonably well in forward-looking models, while the reverse is not necessarily true; and, hence, the operating characteristics of robust rules (i.e., rules that perform satisfactorily in all models) are heavily weighted towards those required by backward-looking models.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 479.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050479

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Related research
Keywords: Macroeconomic modelling model uncertainty monetary policy rules robustness euro area.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  3. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29, pages 173-203. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Paolo Angelini & Paolo Del Giovane & Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area: What Role for National Information?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 457, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Ignazio Angeloni & Gunter Coenen & Frank Smets, 2003. "Persistence, The Transmission Mechanism And Robust Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 527-549, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Denise Côté & John Kuszczak & Jean-Paul Lam & Ying Liu & Pierre St-Amant, 2002. "The Performance and Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in Models of the Canadian Economy," Technical Reports 92, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Alistair Dieppe & Keith Küster & Peter McAdam, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy rules for the euro area: an analysis using the area wide model," Working Paper Series 360, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2002. "The economic consequences of euro area modelling shortcuts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paul Levine & Peter McAdam & Joseph Pearlman & Richard Pierse, 2008. "Risk Management in Action. Robust monetary policy rules under structured uncertainty," Working Paper Series 870, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Livio Stracca, 2006. "A speed limit monetary policy rule for the euro area," Working Paper Series 600, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "Monetary policy analysis with potentially misspecified models," Working Paper 2005-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Patrick Honohan & Anthony Leddin, 2005. "Ireland in EMU: more shocks, less insulation?," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp94, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Solange Gouvea & Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2007. "Monetary Policy Design under Competing Models of Inflation Persistence," Working Papers Series 137, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Miguel Casares, 2007. "Firm-Specific or Household-Specific Sticky Wages in the New Keynesian Model?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 181-240, December. [Downloadable!]
  7. Miguel Casares, 2006. "A close look at model-dependent monetary policy design," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 451-470. [Downloadable!]
  8. Küster, Keith & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "Insurance Policies for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 4956, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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