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Fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries

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  • Afonso, António
  • Nickel, Christiane
  • Rother, Philipp

Abstract

We study fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries and what determines the probability of their success. We define consolidation events as substantive improvements in fiscal balances adjusting for the impact of cyclical effects. We use Logit models for the period 1991–2003 to assess the determinants of the success of a fiscal adjustment. The results seem to suggest that for these countries expenditure based consolidations have tended to be more successful. By contrast, revenue based consolidations have a tendency to be less successful. JEL Classification: C25, E62, H62

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0473.

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Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050473

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Keywords: central and eastern Europe; fiscal episodes; Fiscal Policy; Logit models;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2014. "Assessing fiscal episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 255-270.
  2. Jean-Marc Figuet & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2006. "Convergence and shocks in the road to EU: Empirical investigations for Bulgaria and Romania," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp810, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  3. Borys, Paweł & Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Rzońca, Andrzej, 2013. "Panel data evidence on effects of fiscal impulses in the EU New Member States," MPRA Paper 48243, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Orlando Gomes, 2009. "On the stability of endogenous growth models: An evaluation of the agents' response to output fluctuations," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 17-35, January.
  5. Fatih Ozatay, 2008. "Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: New Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 0805, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
  6. Philipp Paulus, 2006. "The final blow to the Stability Pact? EMU enlargement and government debt," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 03/2006, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
  7. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2011. "Fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2011-08, Bank of Estonia, revised 13 Jul 2011.
  8. Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Kowalczuk, Michał & Rzońca, Andrzej, 2014. "Heterogeneous determinants of local unemployment in Poland," MPRA Paper 56858, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Neicheva, Maria, 2007. "Non-Keynesian effects of Government Spending: Some implications for the Stability and Growth Pact," MPRA Paper 5277, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Karsten Staehr, 2007. "Fiscal policies and business cycles in an enlarged euro area," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-03, Bank of Estonia, revised 08 Mar 2007.
  11. Weonho Yang & Jan Fidrmuc & Sugata Ghosh, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Adjustment: A Tale of two Approaches," CESifo Working Paper Series 4401, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Borys, Paweł & Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Rzońca, Andrzej, 2011. "Panel data evidence on non-Keynesian efects of fiscal policy in the EU New Member," MPRA Paper 32696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Ant�nio Afonso & Jo�o Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Measuring the success of fiscal consolidations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(13), pages 1053-1061, July.
  14. Maria Neicheva, 2006. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Government Expenditure on Output in Bulgaria: An HP Filter Approach," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
  15. Ayala, Astrid & Blazsek, Szabolcs, 2013. "Structural breaks in public finances in Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 45-60.
  16. Irina BILAN & Florin OPREA, 2012. "EU fiscal consolidation strategies in times of crisis – comparative approaches," Anale. Seria Stiinte Economice. Timisoara, Faculty of Economics, Tibiscus University in Timisoara, vol. 0, pages 887-894, May.
  17. Maria Neycheva, 2007. "Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Cumulative Production in the Bulgarian Economy," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 82-101.

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