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Yield curve prediction for the strategic investor

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  • Bernadell, Carlos
  • Coche, Joachim
  • Nyholm, Ken
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    Abstract

    This paper presents a new framework allowing strategic investors to generate yield curve projections contingent on expectations about future macroeconomic scenarios. By consistently linking the shape and location of yield curves to the state of the economy our method generates predictions for the full yield-curve distribution under different assumptions on the future state of the economy. On the technical side, our model represents a regimeswitching expansion of Diebold and Li (2003) and hence rests on the Nelson-Siegel functional form set in state-space form. We allow transition probabilities in the regimeswitching set-up to depend on observed macroeconomic variables and thus create a link between the macro economy and the shape and location of yield curves and their time-series evolution. The model is successfully applied to US yield curve data covering the period from 1953 to 2004 and encouraging out-of-sample results are obtained, in particular at forecasting horizons longer than 24 months. JEL Classification: C51, C53, E44

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0472.

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    Date of creation: Apr 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050472

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    Related research

    Keywords: Regime switching; scenario analysis; state space model; yield curve distributions;

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    Cited by:
    1. Carlo A. Favero & Stefano W. Giglio, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure: Evidence from the Case of Italy in the EMS and the EMU Periods," Working Papers 312, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    2. Bernadell, Carlos & Coche, Joachim & Nyholm, Ken, 2006. "A factor risk model with reference returns for the US dollar and Japanese yen bond markets," Working Paper Series 0641, European Central Bank.
    3. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2008. "A Joint Dynamic Bi-Factor Model of the Yield Curve and the Economy as a Predictor of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 15076, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009.

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