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Structural filters for monetary analysis - the inflationary movements of money in the euro area

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Author Info
Annick Bruggeman () (National Bank of Belgium, Boulevard de Berlaimont 14, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium)
Gonzalo Camba-Méndez () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
Björn Fischer () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
João Sousa () (Bank of Portugal, Rua Francisco Ribeiro 2, P-1100-150, Lisboa, Portugal)

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Abstract

The quantity theory of money predicts a positive relationship between monetary growth and inflation over long-run horizons. However, in the short-run, transitory shocks to either money or inflation can obscure the inflationary signal stemming from money. The spectral analysis of time series provides filtering tools for removing fluctuations associated with certain frequency movements. However, use of these techniques in isolation is often criticised as being an oversimplistic statistical exercise potentially void of economic content. The objective of this paper is to develop ‘structural’ filtering techniques that rely on the use of spectral analysis in combination with a structural economic model with well identified shocks. A ‘money augmented’ Phillips curve that links inflation to money tightness and demand shocks of medium to long-term persistence is presented. It is shown that medium to long-term movements in inflation are mostly associated with the estimated monetary indicators.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 470.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050470

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation; Money.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Timothy Cogley, 1998. "A simple adaptive measure of core inflation," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory and Econometrics 98-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-14, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jerzy Pruski & Piotr Szpunar, 2008. "The monetary transmission mechanism in Poland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 427-437 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  2. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Money Growth, Output Gaps and Inflation at Low and High Frequency: Spectral Estimates for Switzerland," CEPR Discussion Papers 5723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Interpreting Euro Area Inflation at High and Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Petra Gerlach, 2007. "A Two-Pillar Phillips Curve for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(IV), pages 425-448, December. [Downloadable!]
  5. D.M. Nachane & Amlendu Kumar Dubey, 2008. "The vanishing role of money in the macroeconomy: An Empirical investigation based on spectral and wavelet analysis," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2008-022, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India. [Downloadable!]
  6. Rodolfo Maino & Bernard Laurens, 2007. "China: Strengthening Monetary Policy Implementation," IMF Working Papers 07/14, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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