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Money and prices in models of bounded rationality in high inflation economies

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  • Marcet, Albert
  • Nicolini, Juan Pablo

Abstract

This paper studies the short run correlation of inflation and money growth. We study whether a model of learning does better or worse than a model of rational expectations, and we focus our study on countries of high inflation. We take the money process as an exogenous variable, estimated from the data through a switching regime process. We find that the rational expectations model and the model of learning both offer very good explanations for the joint behavior of money and prices. JEL Classification: D83, E17, E31

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0469.

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Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050469

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Keywords: Inflation andmoney growth; quasi-rationality; switching regimes;

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References

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  1. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," NBER Working Papers 12606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Chris Edmond, 2003. "On the Sluggish Response of Prices to Money in an Inventory-Theoretic Model of Money Demand," NBER Working Papers 10016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Arifovic, Jasmina & Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1997. " The Transition from Stagnation to Growth: An Adaptive Learning Approach," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 185-209, July.
  4. Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 1998. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 1875, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. James Bullard, 2002. "Stag-nations," National Economic Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan.
  6. Alvarez, Fernando & Atkeson, Andrew, 1997. "Money and exchange rates in the Grossman-Weiss-Rotemberg model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 619-640, December.
  7. Gilles Saint-Paul, 2005. "Some Evolutionary Foundations for Price Level Rigidity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 765-779, June.
  8. Grossman, Sanford & Weiss, Laurence, 1983. "A Transactions-Based Model of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 871-80, December.
  9. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 1993. "Adaptive forecasts, hysteresis, and endogenous fluctuations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-13.
  10. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2001. "Monetary policy regimes and beliefs," Working Paper 9905, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  11. Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "Money growth and inflation: how long is the long run?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug.
  12. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1984. "A Monetary Equilibrium Model with Transactions Costs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 40-58, February.
  13. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-14, December.
  14. Hildegart Ahumada & Alfredo Canavese & Pablo Sanguinetti & Walter Sosa Escudero, 1993. "Efectos distributivos del impuesto inflacionario: una estimación para el caso argentino," Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA, , vol. 0(2), pages 329-383, July-Dece.
  15. George T. McCandless, Jr. & Warren E. Weber, 1995. "Some monetary facts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-11.
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Cited by:
  1. Bent Nielsen & Zorica Mladenovic, 2009. "The role of income in money demand during hyper-inflation: the case of Yugoslavia," Economics Series Working Papers 2009-W02, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. Basco, Emiliano & D'Amato, Laura & Garegnani, Lorena, 2009. "Understanding the money-prices relationship under low and high inflation regimes: Argentina 1977-2006," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1182-1203, November.
  3. Paul Castillo & Alberto Humala & Vicente Tuesta, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Regime Shifts, and Inflation Uncertainty in Peru (1949-2006)," Working Papers 2007-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

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