Capital flows and the US ‘New Economy’: consumption smoothing and risk exposure
AbstractIn an analytically tractable model of the global economy, we calculate the Pareto improvement where a country experiencing a favourable supply side shock consumes more against expected future output and spreads the risk by selling shares. With capital inflows to finance the ‘New Economy’ significantly exceeding the current account deficit, however, we show that selling shares globally at inflated prices – due to ‘irrational exuberance’ and distorted corporate incentives – can generate significant international transfers when the asset bubble bursts. The analysis complements recent econometric studies which appeal to financial factors to explain why the European economy was so strongly affected by the recent US downturn. JEL Classification: F41, F32, G15
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0459.
Date of creation: Mar 2005
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-10-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2005-10-04 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2005-10-04 (Financial Markets)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Castrén, Olli & Miller, Marcus & Stiegert, Roger, 2003. "Growth expectations, capital flows and international risk sharing," Working Paper Series 0237, European Central Bank.
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- Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2007.
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Research Department Publications
4498, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2006. "Fear and Market Failure: Global Imbalances and 'Self-insurance'," CEPR Discussion Papers 6000, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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"Capital Flows, Interest Rates and Precautionary Behaviour: a model of Global Imbalances,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006
152, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2006. "Capital Flows, Interest Rates and Precautionary Behaviour: a model of "global imbalances"," WEF Working Papers 0014, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
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