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Foreign exchange option and returns based correlation forecasts - evaluation and two applications

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Author Info
Olli Castrén () (Corresponding author: DG-Economics, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Stefano Mazzotta () (McGill University - Faculty of Management, 1001 Sherbrooke St.West, Montreal, Quebec H3A1G5, Canada.)

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Abstract

We compare option-implied correlation forecasts from a dataset consisting of over 10 years of daily data on over-the-counter (OTC) currency option prices to a set of return-based correlation measures and assess the relative quality of the correlation forecasts. We find that while the predictive power of implied correlation is not always superior to that of returns based correlations measures, it tends to provide the most consistent results across currencies. Predictions that use both implied and returns-based correlations generate the highest adjusted R2s, explaining up to 42 per cent of the realised correlations. We then apply the correlation forecasts to two policyrelevant topics, to produce scenario analyses for the euro effective exchange rate index, and to analyse the impact on cross-currency co-movement of interventions on the JPY/USD exchange rate.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 447.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050447

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Related research
Keywords: Correlation forecasts; currency options data; effective exchange rate.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Tim Bollerslev & Hao Zhou, 2003. "Volatility puzzles: a unified framework for gauging return-volatility regressions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Approach to Range-Based Estimation of Return Covariances and Correlations," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-013, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Apr 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Luca Buldorini & Stelios Makrydakis & Christian Thimann, 2002. "The effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 02, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Daniel Stavárek, 2009. "Assessment of the exchange rate convergence in Euro-candidate countries," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 11(25), pages 159-180, February. [Downloadable!]
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