This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Phillips curve and long-term unemployment

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Ricardo Llaudes () (The Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics, 3400 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA.)
Abstract

This paper studies the role of long-term unemployment in the determination of prices and wages. Labor market theories such as insider-outsider models predict that this type of unemployed are less relevant in the wage formation process than the newly unemployed. This paper looks for evidence of this behavior in a set of OECD countries. For this purpose, I propose a new specification of the Phillips Curve that contains different unemployment lengths in a time-varying NAIRU setting. This is done by constructing an index of unemployment that assigns different weights to the unemployed based on the length of their spell. The results show that unemployment duration matters in the determination of prices and wages, and that a smaller weight ought to be given to the long-term unemployed. This modified model has important implications for the policy maker: It produces more accurate forecasts of inflation and more precise estimates of the NAIRU.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp441.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 441.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050441

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Email:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Official Publications).

Related research
Keywords: Long-term unemployment; Phillips curve; NAIRU; Kalman filter.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1963, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Addison, John T. & Centeno, Mário & Portugal, Pedro, 2004. "Reservation Wages, Search Duration, and Accepted Wages in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 1252, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis And The European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Acemoglu, Daron, 1995. "Public Policy in a Model of Long-Term Unemployment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(246), pages 161-78, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," Economics Working Paper Archive 450, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Diamond, Peter A, 1994. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(3), pages 417-34, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  8. Olivier Blanchard & Pedro Portugal, 2001. "What Hides Behind an Unemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and U.S. Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 187-207, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Blackaby, David H & Hunt, Lester C, 1992. "The "Wage Curve" and Long-term Unemployment: A Cautionary Note," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(4), pages 419-28, December.
  10. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ekkehard Ernst & Peter Flaschel & Christian Proano & Willi Semmler, 2006. "Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Dynamics, Income Distribution and Wage-Price Phillips Curves," IMK Working Paper 04-2006, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute. [Downloadable!]
  2. Konstantins Benkovskis & Dainis Stikuts, 2006. "Latvia's Macroeconomic Model," Working Papers 2006/02, Latvijas Banka. [Downloadable!]
  3. Aleksejs Melihovs & Anna Zasova, 2007. "Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Latvia," Working Papers 2007/03, Latvijas Banka. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? The RePEc project started in 1997. Its precursor, NetEc, dates back to 1993.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-15.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.