The Phillips curve and long-term unemployment
AbstractThis paper studies the role of long-term unemployment in the determination of prices and wages. Labor market theories such as insider-outsider models predict that this type of unemployed are less relevant in the wage formation process than the newly unemployed. This paper looks for evidence of this behavior in a set of OECD countries. For this purpose, I propose a new specification of the Phillips Curve that contains different unemployment lengths in a time-varying NAIRU setting. This is done by constructing an index of unemployment that assigns different weights to the unemployed based on the length of their spell. The results show that unemployment duration matters in the determination of prices and wages, and that a smaller weight ought to be given to the long-term unemployed. This modified model has important implications for the policy maker: It produces more accurate forecasts of inflation and more precise estimates of the NAIRU. JEL Classification: C22, E31, E50, J64
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0441.
Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
- J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-10-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2005-10-05 (Forecasting)
- NEP-LAB-2005-10-05 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2005-10-06 (Macroeconomics)
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Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Fed Watch: Rising NAIRU?
by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2010-07-27 07:33:00
- Rising NAIRU?
by Tim Duy in tim duy's fed watch on 2010-07-27 06:09:27
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