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Measuring market and inflation risk premia in France and in Germany

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Author Info
Lorenzo Cappiello () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Stéphane Guéné () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

This paper studies the role of inflation in the determination of financial asset prices. We estimate an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model à la Merton (1973), with inflation as an independent source of risk, for France and Germany. Our study also allows us to evaluate how the different nature of the French and German monetary policies before 1999 as well as the convergence process towards the single currency might have affected the role of inflation in the pricing of financial assets. We find that inflation is a significant explanatory factor for the pricing of stocks and government bonds in the two countries. Moreover, while there seems to be no clear structural break in the impact of inflation on asset prices after Stage Three of Economic and Monetary Union, such an impact has been increasingly similar in the two countries after 1999.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 436.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050436

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Related research
Keywords: Intertemporal CAPM; business cycles; GARCH-in-Mean;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1897, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Determining the Number of Priced State Variables in the ICAPM," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(02), pages 217-231, June. [Downloadable!]
  7. Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
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  9. John T. Scruggs, 1998. "Resolving the Puzzling Intertemporal Relation between the Market Risk Premium and Conditional Market Variance: A Two-Factor Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 575-603, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Black, Fischer, 1972. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Restricted Borrowing," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(3), pages 444-55, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "Portfolio Advice for a Multifactor World," CRSP working papers 491, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  12. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "New Facts in Finance," NBER Working Papers 7169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premium and Macroeconomic Volatilities in the UK," Discussion Papers 07/13, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  2. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premia and Macroeconomic Volatilities," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 140, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  3. Juan Angel Garcia & Adrian van Rixtel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a central bank perspective," Banco de España Occasional Papers 0705, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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