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What determines fiscal balances? An empirical investigation in determinants of changes in OECD budget balances

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Author Info
Mika Tujula () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
Guido Wolswijk () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
Abstract

Fiscal balances have deteriorated quickly in recent years, bringing back to the foreground the question what factors help explain such sharp changes. This paper takes a broad perspective at the issue regarding countries included, the range of explanatory variables tried, and the time-span. The empirical analysis shows that changes in budget balances are affected by debt growth, macroeconomic developments and political factors. In particular, we find that the run-up to EMU induced additional consolidation in Europe and that budget balances deteriorate markedly in election years. Asset prices also may affect budgets, but the impact remains limited in normal times.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 422.

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Length: 65 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040422

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Related research
Keywords: Fiscal policy asset prices economic growth budget balance Stability and Growth Pact.

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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Cited by:
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  1. António Afonso, 2005. "Ricardian Fiscal Regimes in the European Union," Working Papers 2005/18, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Anthony Annett, 2006. "Enforcement and the Stability and Growth Pact: How Fiscal Policy Did and Did Not Change Under Europe's Fiscal Framework," IMF Working Papers 06/116, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen & Ludger Schuknecht, 2006. "Sovereign Risk Premiums in the European Government Bond Market," Discussion Papers 151, SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gábor P. Kiss, 2007. "Pain or Gain? Short-term Budgetary Effects of Surprise Inflation - the Case of Hungary," MNB Occasional Papers 2007/61, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2008-8-15.

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