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How persistent is disaggregate inflation? An analysis across EU 15 countries and HICP sub-indices

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  • Lünnemann, Patrick
  • Mathä, Thomas Y.

Abstract

This paper analyses the degree of inflation persistence in the EU15, the euro area and each of its member states using disaggregate price indices from the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Our results reveal substantial heterogeneity across countries and indices. The overall results, based on both parametric and non-parametric persistence measures, suggest a very moderate degree of median and mean inflation persistence. For most price indices we are able to reject the unit root hypothesis, as well as the notion of disaggregate inflation exhibiting a high degree of persistence. Durable goods and services tend to be relatively less persistent than other indices. Aggregation effects, both across indices and countries, tend to be present. We find structural breaks both owing to the change in the monetary regime and to the modified treatment of sales in the official HICP series. The latter tends to reduce the measured degree of inflation persistence. JEL Classification: E31, C21, C22, C14

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0415.

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Date of creation: Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040415

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Keywords: Aggregation effect; Inflation persistence; Mean reversion; structural breaks;

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  1. Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  2. Carlos Robalo Marques, 2004. "Inflation Persistence: Facts or Artefacts?," Working Papers w200408, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  3. Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2004. "Contemporaneous aggregation of linear dynamic models in large economies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 75-102, May.
  4. O'Reilly, Gerard & Whelan, Karl, 2004. "Has euro-area inflation persistence changed over time?," Working Paper Series 0335, European Central Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Lünnemann, Patrick & Mathä, Thomas Y., 2005. "Consumer price behaviour in Luxembourg: evidence from micro CPI data," Working Paper Series 0541, European Central Bank.
  2. Bart Hobijn & Federico Ravenna & Andrea Tambalotti, 2004. "Menu costs at work: restaurant prices and the introduction of the euro," Staff Reports 195, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Sevim Kosem Alp, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Sectoral Heterogeneity in Inflation Persistence (Sektorel Enflasyon Ataleti Farkliligi Altinda Optimal Para Politikasi)," Working Papers 1004, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  4. Babutsidze, Zakaria, 2006. "(S,s) Pricing: Does the Heterogeneity Wipe Out the Asymmetry on Micro Level?," UNU-MERIT Working Paper Series 033, United Nations University, Maastricht Economic and social Research and training centre on Innovation and Technology.
  5. Sevim Kosem-Alp, 2009. "The (Ir)relevance of Inflation Persistence for Inflation Targeting Policy Design," Departmental Working Papers 0903, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
  6. Migliardo, Carlo, 2012. "Heterogeneity in price setting behavior, spatial disparities and sectoral diversity: Evidence from a panel of Italian firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1106-1118.

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