How persistent is disaggregate inflation? An analysis across EU 15 countries and HICP sub-indices
AbstractThis paper analyses the degree of inflation persistence in the EU15, the euro area and each of its member states using disaggregate price indices from the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Our results reveal substantial heterogeneity across countries and indices. The overall results, based on both parametric and non-parametric persistence measures, suggest a very moderate degree of median and mean inflation persistence. For most price indices we are able to reject the unit root hypothesis, as well as the notion of disaggregate inflation exhibiting a high degree of persistence. Durable goods and services tend to be relatively less persistent than other indices. Aggregation effects, both across indices and countries, tend to be present. We find structural breaks both owing to the change in the monetary regime and to the modified treatment of sales in the official HICP series. The latter tends to reduce the measured degree of inflation persistence. JEL Classification: E31, C21, C22, C14
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Date of creation: Nov 2004
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-10-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2005-10-04 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2005-10-04 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2005-10-04 (Monetary Economics)
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