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How persistent is disaggregate inflation? An analysis across EU 15 countries and HICP sub-indices

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  • Lünnemann, Patrick
  • Mathä, Thomas Y.

Abstract

This paper analyses the degree of inflation persistence in the EU15, the euro area and each of its member states using disaggregate price indices from the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Our results reveal substantial heterogeneity across countries and indices. The overall results, based on both parametric and non-parametric persistence measures, suggest a very moderate degree of median and mean inflation persistence. For most price indices we are able to reject the unit root hypothesis, as well as the notion of disaggregate inflation exhibiting a high degree of persistence. Durable goods and services tend to be relatively less persistent than other indices. Aggregation effects, both across indices and countries, tend to be present. We find structural breaks both owing to the change in the monetary regime and to the modified treatment of sales in the official HICP series. The latter tends to reduce the measured degree of inflation persistence. JEL Classification: E31, C21, C22, C14

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0415.

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Date of creation: Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040415

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Keywords: Aggregation effect; Inflation persistence; Mean reversion; structural breaks;

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  1. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
  2. Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  3. Benigno, Pierpaolo & López-Salido, David, 2002. "Inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0178, European Central Bank.
  4. Robert Barsky & Christopher House & Miles Kimball, 2003. "Do Flexible Durable Goods Prices Undermine Sticky Price Models?," Macroeconomics 0302003, EconWPA.
  5. Carlos Robalo Marques, 2004. "Inflation Persistence: Facts or Artefacts?," Working Papers w200408, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  6. Marcus J. Chambers, . "Long Memory and Aggregation in Macroeconomic Time Series," Economics Discussion Papers 437, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  7. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  8. Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2004. "Contemporaneous aggregation of linear dynamic models in large economies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 75-102, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horváth, 2010. "Price setting and market structure: an empirical analysis of micro data in Slovakia," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 209-233.
  2. Bart Hobijn & Federico Ravenna & Andrea Tambalotti, 2004. "Menu costs at work: restaurant prices and the introduction of the euro," Staff Reports 195, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Dieter Nautz & Juliane Scharff, 2012. "Inflation and relative price variability in the euro area: evidence from a panel threshold model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 449-460, February.
  4. Migliardo, Carlo, 2012. "Heterogeneity in price setting behavior, spatial disparities and sectoral diversity: Evidence from a panel of Italian firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1106-1118.
  5. Patrick Lünnemann & Thomas Mathä, 2005. "Consumer price behaviour in Luxembourg: evidence from micro CPI data," BCL working papers 17, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  6. Cellini, Roberto & Paolino, Alessandro, 2007. "Price of recreational products and the exchange rate: an empirical investigation on US data," MPRA Paper 5194, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Sevim Kosem Alp, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Sectoral Heterogeneity in Inflation Persistence (Sektorel Enflasyon Ataleti Farkliligi Altinda Optimal Para Politikasi)," Working Papers 1004, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  8. Sevim Kosem-Alp, 2009. "The (Ir)relevance of Inflation Persistence for Inflation Targeting Policy Design," Departmental Working Papers 0903, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.

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