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Inflation persistence in the European Union, the euro area, and the United States

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  • Gadzinski, Gregory
  • Orlandi, Fabrice
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    Abstract

    In this paper we report results on inflation persistence using 79 inflation series covering the EU countries, the euro area and the US for five different inflation variables. The picture that emerges is one of moderate inflation persistence across the board. In particular we find euro area inflation persistence to be broadly in line with US inflation persistence. The issue of allowing for intercept dummies in the underlying inflation models is found to be of paramount importance to avoid overestimation of the level of persistence. The use of alternative measures of persistence is found to be commendable on the grounds that they complement each other in practice. JEL Classification: E31, E52, C22, C12

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0414.

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    Date of creation: Nov 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040414

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    Keywords: Inflation Dynamics; median unbiased estimates; Structural change;

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    1. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
    2. Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "Euro area inflation persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 977-1002, November.
    3. Todd E. Clark, 2006. "Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 563-587.
    4. Martin Evans & Paul Wachtel, 1993. "Inflation regimes and the sources of inflation uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 475-520.
    5. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
    6. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2001. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Robert B. Barsky, 1986. "The Fisher Hypothesis and the Forecastability and Persistence of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 1927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060, August.
    9. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1999. "Under what circumstances, past and present, have international rescues of countries in financial distress been successful?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 683-708, August.
    10. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2132872, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
    11. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
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