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Fiscal discipline and the cost of public debt service: some estimates for OECD countries

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Author Info
Silvia Ardagna () (Department of Economics, Harvard University, Littauer Center, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.)
Francesco Caselli () (Department of Economics, Harvard University, Littauer Center, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.)
Timothy Lane () (Policy Development and Review Department, IMF, 700 19th St.NW,Washington, DC 20431, USA.)

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Abstract

We use a panel of 16 OECD countries over several decades to investigate the effects of gov- ernment debts and deficits on long-term interest rates. In simple static specifications, a one-percentage-point increase in the primary deficit relative to GDP increases contempora- neous long-term interest rates by about 10 basis points. In a vector autoregression (VAR), the same shock leads to a cumulative increase of almost 150 basis points after 10 years. The effect of debt on interest rates is non-linear: only for countries with above-average levels of debt does an increase in debt affect the interest rate. World fiscal policy is also important: an increase in total OECD-government borrowing increases each country's interest rates. How- ever, domestic fiscal policy continues to affect domestic interest rates even after controlling for worldwide debts and deficits.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 411.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040411

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Related research
Keywords: Government deficit public debt long-term interest rates.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carsten Detken & Vítor Gaspar & Bernhard Winkler, 2005. "On Prosperity and Posterity: The Need for Fiscal Discipline in a Monetary Union," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 30, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Stefano Schiavo, 2005. "Euro bonds: in search of financial spillovers," Department of Economics Working Papers 0502, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Javier Andrés & Rafael Doménech, 2006. "Fiscal Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 176(1), pages 9-41, April. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Favero, Carlo A & Giglio, Stefano W, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure: Evidence from the Case of Italy in the EMS and the EMU Periods," CEPR Discussion Papers 5793, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Silvia Ardagna, 2004. "Financial markets’ behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance," Working Paper Series 390, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bruno Ducoudré, 2005. "Fiscal policy and interest rates," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  7. David Hauner & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates--How Sustainable Is the "New Economy"?," IMF Working Papers 06/112, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2007. "Mr. Wicksell and the global economy: What drives real interest rates?," Working Papers 2007-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Ludger Linnemann & Andreas Schabert, . "Debt Non-Neutrality, Policy Interactions, and Macroeconomic Stability," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-077/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Günter Coenen & Matthias Mohr & Roland Straub, 2008. "Fiscal consolidation in the euro area - long-run benefits and short-run costs," Working Paper Series 902, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Francesco Saraceno, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline as a Social Norm: The European Stability Pact," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-22, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  12. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen & Ludger Schuknecht, 2006. "Sovereign Risk Premiums in the European Government Bond Market," Discussion Papers 151, SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
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