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The great inflation, limited asset markets participation and aggregate demand: FED policy was better than you think

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  • Bilbiie, Florin O.

Abstract

When enough agents do not participate in asset markets, the slope of the aggregate demand curve is reversed. Monetary policy should be passive, to ensure equilibrium determinacy and to minimize variations in output and inflation. This paper presents evidence that asset markets participation in the US was limited over the Great Inflation period and the slope of the IS curve had the ’wrong’ sign. Our results may help explain the ’Great Inflation’ and give optimism for FED policy. If the economy was characterized by a relatively higher degree of financial frictions over that period: (i) policy implied a determinate equilibrium and ruled out sunspot fluctuations; (ii) policy was closer to optimal than conventional wisdom dictates; (iii) responses and variability of macroeconomic variables conditional upon fundamental shocks are close to their estimated counterparts for a wide range of reasonable parameterizations. Notably, ’cost-push’ shocks are enough to generate a Great Inflation. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E44, E58, E65

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0408.

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Date of creation: Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040408

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Keywords: limited asset markets participation; monetary policy rules; real (in)determinacy; Taylor Principle; the Great Inflation;

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Cited by:
  1. Florin Bilbiie, 2005. "Limited Asset Markets Participation, Monetary Policy and (Inverted) Keynesian Logic," Economics Papers 2005-W09, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  2. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Manzo Marco, 2007. "Do tax distortions lead to more indeterminacy? A New Keynesian perspective," wp.comunite 0013, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  3. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Rossi, Lorenza, 2005. "Heterogeneous Consumers, Demand Regimes, Monetary Policy and Equilibrium Determinacy," MPRA Paper 5100, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Sep 2007.
  4. John Landon-Lane & Filippo Occhino, 2005. "Estimation and Evaluation of a Segmented Markets Monetary Model," Departmental Working Papers 200505, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  5. Camelia Ioana Ucenic & Laura Bacali, 2008. "The Impact Of It Advance Of Smes� For The Romanian Economy," Working Papers 0804, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  6. Landon-Lane, John & Occhino, Filippo, 2008. "Bayesian estimation and evaluation of the segmented markets friction in equilibrium monetary models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 444-461, March.
  7. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Lorenzo Rossi & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2006. "Monetary Policy under Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: An International Empirical Comparison," Working Papers 97, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.

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