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Fiscal sustainability and public debt in an endogenous growth model

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  • Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús
  • Vidal, Jean-Pierre

Abstract

This paper investigates fiscal sustainability in an overlapping generations economy with endogenous growth coming from human capital formation through educational spending. We assess how budgetary imbalances affect economic dynamics and the outlook for economic growth, thereby providing a rationale for fiscal rules ensuring sustainability. Our results show that the appropriate response of fiscal policy to temporary shocks is not trivial in the absence of fiscal rules. Fiscal rules allow for a timely reaction, thereby avoiding possibly disruptive fiscal adjustment in the future: the more adjustment is delayed, the larger is its necessary scale. We perform a rough calibration of the model to simulate the effects of a demographic shock (change in the population growth rate) under different fiscal policy scenarios. JEL Classification: E62, H63, H55, O41, E17

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0395.

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Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040395

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Keywords: Fiscal sustainability; overlapping generations; public debt;

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  1. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Giammarioli, Nicola, 2004. "Fiscal rules and sustainability of public finances in an endogenous growth model," Working Paper Series 0381, European Central Bank.
  2. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
  3. Michel, Philippe & Thibault, Emmanuel & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2004. "Intergenerational altruism and neoclassical growth models," Working Paper Series 0386, European Central Bank.
  4. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1994. "The Political Economy of Budget Deficits," NBER Working Papers 4637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2000. "Good, Bad or Ugly?on the Effects of Fiscal Rules with Creative Accounting," IMF Working Papers 00/172, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Rankin, N. & Roffia, B., 1999. "Maximum Sustainable Government Debt in the Overlapping Generations Model," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 521, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  7. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004. "Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules," NBER Working Papers 10253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Willem H. Buiter, 2003. "Ten Commandments for a Fiscal Rule in the E(M)U," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 84-99.
  9. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
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Cited by:
  1. Philippe Michel & Leopold Von Thadden & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2010. "Debt Stabilizing Fiscal Rules," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 12(5), pages 923-941, October.
  2. N. Bilkic & B. Carreras Painter & T. Gries, 2013. "Unsustainable sovereign debt—is the Euro crisis only the tip of the iceberg?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-45, March.
  3. Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "EU fiscal rules: issues and lessons from political economy," Working Paper Series 0421, European Central Bank.
  4. Natasa Bilkic & Ben Carreras Painter & Thomas Gries, 2012. "Unsustainable Sovereign Debt - is the Euro Crisis only the Tip of the Iceberg?," Working Papers CIE 56, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
  5. repec:pdn:wpaper:56 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. T. Buyse & F. Heylen, 2012. "Leaving the empirical (battle)ground: Output and welfare effects of fiscal consolidation in general equilibrium," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/826, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  7. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2005. "Assessing The Mean Reversion Behavior Of Fiscal Policy: The Case Of Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504002, EconWPA.

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