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Fiscal sustainability and public debt in an endogenous growth model

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Author Info
Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga () (Columbia University, Department of Economics, 420 West 118th Street, New York, NY 10027, USA.)
Jean-Pierre Vidal () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

This paper investigates fiscal sustainability in an overlapping generations economy with endogenous growth coming from human capital formation through educational spending. We assess how budgetary imbalances affect economic dynamics and the outlook for economic growth, thereby providing a rationale for fiscal rules ensuring sustainability. Our results show that the appropriate response of fiscal policy to temporary shocks is not trivial in the absence of fiscal rules. Fiscal rules allow for a timely reaction, thereby avoiding possibly disruptive fiscal adjustment in the future: the more adjustment is delayed, the larger is its necessary scale. We perform a rough calibration of the model to simulate the effects of a demographic shock (change in the population growth rate) under different fiscal policy scenarios.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 395.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040395

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Related research
Keywords: Fiscal sustainability public debt overlapping generations.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2004. "Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 4334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Willem H. Buiter, 2003. "Ten Commandments for a Fiscal Rule in the E(M)U," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 84-99.
  3. Philippe Michel & Emmanuel Thibault & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2004. "Intergenerational altruism and neoclassical growth models," Working Paper Series 386, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1994. "The Political Economy of Budget Deficits," NBER Working Papers 4637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Enrique G. Mendoza & Assaf Razin & Linda L. Tesar, 1995. "Effective Tax Rates in Macroeconomics: Cross-Country Estimates of Tax Rates on Factor Incomes and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 4864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Barbara Annicchiarico & Nicola Giammarioli, 2004. "Fiscal rules and sustainability of public finances in an endogenous growth model," Working Paper Series 381, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "Good, Bad or Ugly? On the Effects of Fiscal Rules with Creative Accounting," CEPR Discussion Papers 2663, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Neil Rankin & Barbara Roffia, 2003. "Maximum Sustainable Government Debt in the Overlapping Generations Model," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 217-241, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. P R Agénor & D Yilmaz, 2006. "The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 73, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  2. Philippe Michel & Leopold von Thadden & Jean-Piere Vidal, 2005. "Debt stabilizing fiscal rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 349, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ludger Schuknecht, 2004. "EU fiscal rules: issues and lessons from political economy," Working Paper Series 421, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2005. "Assessing The Mean Reversion Behavior Of Fiscal Policy: The Case Of Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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