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Financial markets' behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance

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  • Ardagna, Silvia
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    Abstract

    Using a panel of OECD countries from 1960 to 2002, this paper shows that financial markets value fiscal discipline. Interest rates, particularly those of long-term government bonds, decrease when countries' fiscal position improves and increase around periods of budget deteriorations. Stock market prices surge around times of substantial fiscal tightening and plunge in periods of very loose fiscal policy. In addition, the paper shows that results depend on countries' initial fiscal conditions and on the type of fiscal consolidations. Fiscal adjustments that occur in country-years with high levels of government defcit, that are implemented by cutting government spending, and that generate a permanent and substantial decrease in government debt are associated with larger reductions in interest rates and increases in stock market prices. JEL Classification: E62, E44, H62

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0390.

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    Date of creation: Sep 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040390

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    Related research

    Keywords: fiscal expansions; Fiscal stabilizations; Interest Rates; stock market prices;

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    References

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    1. Ardagna, Silvia & Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," Scholarly Articles 3353756, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    2. Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 1998. "Tales of fiscal adjustment," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 487-545, October.
    4. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "Yield-curve movements and fiscal retrenchments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1675-1685, December.
    5. Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal discipline and the cost of public dept service: some estiames for OECD countries," Working Paper Series 0411, European Central Bank.
    6. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "World Real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 3317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "World Real Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 15-74 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal stabilizations: When do they work and why," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1047-1074, October.
    8. Ardagna, Silvia & Alesina, Alberto, 1998. "Tales of Fiscal Adjustment," Scholarly Articles 2579822, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    9. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal Stabilizations: When Do They Work and Why," Scholarly Articles 2580047, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    10. Afonso, António & Strauch, Rolf, 2004. "Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: evidence from the EU," Working Paper Series 0303, European Central Bank.
    11. repec:fth:coluec:754 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:
    1. Francesco Giavazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano & Marina Benedetti, 2005. "Searching for Non-Monotonic Effects of Fiscal Policy: New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Canale Rosaria Rita & Foresti Pasquale & Marani Ugo & Napolitano Oreste, 2008. "On keynesian effects of (apparent) non-keynesian fiscal policies," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 5-46.
    3. Ardagna, Silvia, 2009. "Financial markets' behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 37-55, January.
    4. Petr Hedbávný & Ondrej Schneider & Jan Zápal, 2005. "A Fiscal Rule that has Teeth: A Suggestion for a ‘Fiscal Sustainability Council’ underpinned by the Financial Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 1499, CESifo Group Munich.

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