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Euro area sovereign yield dynamics: the role of order imbalance

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  • Menkveld, Albert J.
  • Cheung, Yiu Chung
  • de Jong, Frank

Abstract

We study sovereign yield dynamics and order flow in the largest euro-area treasury markets. We exploit unique transaction data to explain daily yield changes in the ten-year government bonds of Italy, France, Belgium, and Germany. We use a state space model to decompose these changes into (i) a “benchmark” yield innovation, (ii) a yield spread common factor innovation, (iii) country-specific innovations, and (iv) (transitory) noise. We relate changes in each of these factors to national order imbalance and find that Italian order imbalance impacts the common factor innovation, French and Belgian order imbalance impact country-specific innovations, and German order imbalance only changes yields temporarily. Order imbalance, however, does not have explanatory power for the most important factor: benchmark yield innovations. JEL Classification: G10, G15, G18

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0385.

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Date of creation: Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040385

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Keywords: euro; Government bond; international; order imbalance;

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Cited by:
  1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Price discovery and trade fragmentation in a multi-market environment: Evidence from the MTS system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 227-240.
  2. Coluzzi, Chiara & Ginebri, Sergio & Turco, Manuel, 2008. "Measuring and Analyzing the Liquidity of the Italian Treasury Security Wholesale Secondary Market," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp08044, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
  3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi, 2010. "Price Formation on the EuroMTS Platform," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 977, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Alessandro Girardi, 2008. "The Informational Content of Trades on the EuroMTS Platform," ISAE Working Papers 97, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi & Paolo Paesani, 2010. "Quoted Spreads and Trade Imbalance Dynamics in the European Treasury Bond Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1080, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957, March.
  7. Fricke, Christoph & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Does the "Bund" dominate price discovery in Euro bond futures? Examining information shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1057-1072, May.

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