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Fiscal rules and sustainability of public finances in an endogenous growth model

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  • Annicchiarico, Barbara
  • Giammarioli, Nicola

Abstract

This paper presents a two period overlapping generations model with endogenous growth in the presence of a public sector with objectives of convergence for public debt and primary balance to GDP ratios. In order to ensure the existence of converging paths towards the target values of fiscal variables, we introduce a simple fiscal policy rule. According to this rule, the primary balance ratio is adjusted in function of the distance between the current and the target levels of the public debt and the primary surplus to GDP ratios. It is shown that the fiscal rule displaying time invariant parameters may produce non linear dynamic processes of adjustment of the fiscal ratios as well as endogenous fluctuations in the rate of growth of the economy. In addition the transitional process towards fiscal targets critically depends on the adjustment tool chosen by the fiscal authorities to implement the rule. JEL Classification: H63, H62, O41

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0381.

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Date of creation: Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040381

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Keywords: endogenous growth; Fiscal Policy; sustainability of public finances;

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References

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  1. MARCHAND, Maurice & MICHEL, Philippe & PESTIEAU, Pierre, 1993. "Optimal intergenerational transfers in an endogenous growth model with fertility change," CORE Discussion Papers 1993011, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Pasquale Scaramozzino & Giancarlo Marini, 2000. "Social time preference," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 639-645.
  3. Rankin, N. & Roffia, B., 1999. "Maximum Sustainable Government Debt in the Overlapping Generations Model," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 521, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  4. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
  5. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1992. "Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1243-59, November.
  6. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
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Cited by:
  1. Michel, Philippe & von Thadden, Leopold & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2006. "Debt stabilizing fiscal rules," Working Paper Series 0576, European Central Bank.
  2. repec:pdn:wpaper:56 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2004. "Fiscal sustainability and public debt in an endogenous growth model," Working Paper Series 0395, European Central Bank.
  4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Devrim Yilmaz, 2012. "Simple Dynamics of Public Debt with Productive Public Goods," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 165, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  5. Paolo Biraschi, . "Searching for the optimal EMU fiscal rule:an ex-post analysis of the SGP reform proposals," Working Papers wp2008-7, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  6. Breuss, Fritz & Roeger, Werner, 2005. "The SGP fiscal rule in the case of sluggish growth: Simulations with the QUEST model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 767-788, October.
  7. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2005. "Assessing The Mean Reversion Behavior Of Fiscal Policy: The Case Of Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504002, EconWPA.
  8. P R Agénor & D Yilmaz, 2006. "The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 73, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.

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