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To aggregate or not to aggregate? Euro area inflation forecasting

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  • Benalal, Nicholai
  • Diaz del Hoyo, Juan Luis
  • Landau, Bettina
  • Roma, Moreno
  • Skudelny, Frauke
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    Abstract

    In this paper we investigate whether the forecast of the HICP components (indirect approach) improves upon the forecast of overall HICP (direct approach) and whether the aggregation of country forecasts improves upon the forecast of the euro-area as a whole, considering the four largest euro area countries. The direct approach provides clearly better results than the indirect approach for 12 and 18 steps ahead for the overall HICP, while for shorter horizons the results are mixed. For the euro area HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy(HICPX), the indirect forecast outperforms the direct whereas the differences are only marginal for the countries. The aggregation of country forecasts does not seem to improve upon the forecast of the euro area HICP and HICPX. This result has however to be taken with caution as differences appear to be rather small and due to the limited country coverage. JEL Classification: C11, C32, C53, E31, E37

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0374.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040374

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    Related research

    Keywords: Bayesian VARs; Forecasting short-term inflation; HICP sub-components/aggregation; Model Selection;

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    References

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    1. Toshitaka Sekine, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Japan," IMF Working Papers 01/82, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Peter Vlaar & Ard den Reijer, 2004. "Forecasting inflation: An art as well as a science!," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 148, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Friedrich Fritzer & Gabriel Moser & Johann Scharler, 2002. "Forecasting Austrian HICP and its Components using VAR and ARIMA Models," Working Papers 73, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
    5. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
    6. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Forecasting Irish inflation using ARIMA models," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Jonas D. M. Fisher & Chin Te Liu & Ruilin Zhou, 2002. "When can we forecast inflation?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 32-44.
    8. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Bayesian Var Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
    10. Kadiyala, K Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1997. "Numerical Methods for Estimation and Inference in Bayesian VAR-Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 99-132, March-Apr.
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    Cited by:
    1. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2010. "Does aggregating forecasts by CPI component improve inflation forecast accuracy in South Africa?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Kitov, Ivan & KItov, Oleg, 2013. "Does Banque de France control inflation and unemployment?," MPRA Paper 50239, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Fabio Rumler, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Austria – An Extension for the Open Economy," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 55–69.
    5. Melolinna, Marko, 2011. "What explains risk premia in crude oil futures?," Research Discussion Papers 2/2011, Bank of Finland.
    6. Carson, Richard T. & Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Parker, Roger, 2011. "Forecasting (aggregate) demand for US commercial air travel," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 923-941.
    7. Moser, Gabriel & Rumler, Fabio & Scharler, Johann, 2007. "Forecasting Austrian inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 470-480, May.
    8. Rebeca Albacete & Antoni Espasa, 2005. "Forecasting Inflation In The Euro Area Using Monthly Time Series Models And Quarterly Econometric Models," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws050401, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
    9. Duarte, Claudia & Rua, Antonio, 2007. "Forecasting inflation through a bottom-up approach: How bottom is bottom?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 941-953, November.

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