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The information content of over-the-counter currency options Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Peter Christoffersen () (Faculty of Management, McGill University )
Stefano Mazzotta () (Department of Economics & Finance, Coles College of Business, Kennesaw State University )
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Financial decision makers often consider the information in currency option valuations when making assessments about future exchange rates. The purpose of this paper is to systematically assess the quality of option based volatility, interval and density forecasts. We use a unique dataset consisting of over 10 years of daily data on over-the-counter currency option prices. We find that the OTC implied volatilities explain a much larger share of the variation in realized volatility than previously found using market-traded options. Finally, we find that wide-range interval and density forecasts are often misspecified whereas narrow-range interval forecasts are well specified.
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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number
366.
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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2004Date of revision:
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Keywords: FX ; Volatility ; Interval ; Density ; Forecasting. ; Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
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