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Exchange rates and fundamentals - new evidence from real-time data

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Author Info
Michael Ehrmann () (European Central Bank)
Marcel Fratzscher () (European Central Bank)

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Abstract

This paper analyses the link between economic fundamentals and exchange rates by investigating the importance of real-time data. We find that such economic news in the United States, Germany and the euro area have indeed been a driving force behind daily US dollar – euro/DEM exchange rate developments in the period 1993-2003. The larger importance of US macroeconomic news is at least partly explained by their earlier release time compared to corresponding German and euro area news. The exchange rate is also shown to respond more strongly to news in periods of large market uncertainty and when negative or large shocks occur. Overall, the model based on real-time data is capable of explaining about 75% of the monthly directional changes of the US dollar-euro exchange rate, although it does not explain well the magnitude of the exchange rate changes.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 365.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040365

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Related research
Keywords: exchange rates fundamentals announcements news real-time data United States euro area interdependence US dollar euro EMU.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kathryn Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2005. "What Defines "News" in Foreign Exchange Markets?," NBER Working Papers 11769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Olli Castrén, 2004. "Do options-implied RND functions on G3 currencies move around the times of interventions on the JPY/USD exchange rate?," Working Paper Series 410, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christian Dreger & Georg Stadtmann, 2006. "What Drives Heterogeneity in Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations : Deep Insights from a New Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 624, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Stocks, Bonds, Money Markets and Exchange Rates: Measuring International Financial Transmission," NBER Working Papers 11166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Olli Castrén & Chiara Osbat & Matthias Sydow, 2006. "What drives investors’ behaviour in different FX market segments? A VAR-based return decomposition analysis," Working Paper Series 706, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The Influence of Actual and Unrequited Interventions," NBER Working Papers 12953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hannes Haushofer & Gabriel Moser & Renate Unger, 2005. "Fundamental and Nonfundamental Factors in the Euro/U.S. Dollar Market in 2002 and 2003," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 58-76, April. [Downloadable!]
  8. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The influence of actual and unrequited interventions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 171-200. [Downloadable!]
  9. Evans, Kevin & Speight, Alan, 2006. "Dynamic News Effects in High Frequency Euro Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility," Cardiff Accounting and Finance Working Papers A2006/4, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Accounting and Finance Section. [Downloadable!]
  10. Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "US shocks and global exchange rate configurations," Working Paper Series 835, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The Influence of Actual and Unrequited Interventions," Working Papers 561, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kathryn Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2005. "What Defines 'News' in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers 547, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
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