This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Exchange rates and fundamentals - new evidence from real-time data

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Michael Ehrmann () (European Central Bank)
Marcel Fratzscher () (European Central Bank)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper analyses the link between economic fundamentals and exchange rates by investigating the importance of real-time data. We find that such economic news in the United States, Germany and the euro area have indeed been a driving force behind daily US dollar – euro/DEM exchange rate developments in the period 1993-2003. The larger importance of US macroeconomic news is at least partly explained by their earlier release time compared to corresponding German and euro area news. The exchange rate is also shown to respond more strongly to news in periods of large market uncertainty and when negative or large shocks occur. Overall, the model based on real-time data is capable of explaining about 75% of the monthly directional changes of the US dollar-euro exchange rate, although it does not explain well the magnitude of the exchange rate changes.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp365.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 365.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: May 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040365

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Email:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Official Publications).

Related research
Keywords: exchange rates; fundamentals; announcements; news; real-time data; United States; euro area; interdependence; US dollar euro; EMU.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Research Paper 9706, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 618-628, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. John Y. Campbell & Ludger Hentschel, 1991. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-91, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "Equal Size, Equal Role? Interest Rate Interdependence Between the Euro Area and the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(506), pages 928-948, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2002. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," NBER Working Papers 9393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
  16. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  20. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-051, University of California at Berkeley.
    Other versions:
  21. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders," NBER Working Papers 7417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1998. "Deutsche Mark-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 219-265, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Almeida, Alvaro & Goodhart, Charles & Payne, Richard, 1998. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(03), pages 383-408, September. [Downloadable!]
  24. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Jorge Sicilia & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 192, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  26. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2002. "Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?," Working Paper Series 200, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  27. Harvey, Campbell R & Huang, Roger D, 1991. "Volatility in the Foreign Currency Futures Market," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 543-69. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Gabriele Galati & Corrinne Ho, 2003. "Macroeconomic News and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 32(3), pages 371-398, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christian Dreger & Georg Stadtmann, 2008. "What drives heterogeneity in foreign exchange rate expectations: insights from a new survey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 360-367. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kathryn Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2005. "What Defines "News" in Foreign Exchange Markets?," NBER Working Papers 11769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Olli Castrén, 2004. "Do options-implied RND functions on G3 currencies move around the times of interventions on the JPY/USD exchange rate?," Working Paper Series 410, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Christian Dreger & Georg Stadtmann, 2006. "What Drives Heterogeneity in Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Deep Insights from a New Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 624, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Stocks, Bonds, Money Markets and Exchange Rates: Measuring International Financial Transmission," NBER Working Papers 11166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Olli Castrén & Chiara Osbat & Matthias Sydow, 2006. "What drives investors’ behaviour in different FX market segments? A VAR-based return decomposition analysis," Working Paper Series 706, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "What Explains Global Exchange Rate Movements During the Financial Crisis?," Working Paper Series 1060, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Shaun K. Roache & Marco Rossi, 2009. "The Effects of Economic News on Commodity Prices: Is Gold Just Another Commodity?," IMF Working Papers 09/140, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The Influence of Actual and Unrequited Interventions," NBER Working Papers 12953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Hannes Haushofer & Gabriel Moser & Renate Unger, 2005. "Fundamental and Nonfundamental Factors in the Euro/U.S. Dollar Market in 2002 and 2003," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 58-76, April. [Downloadable!]
  11. Evans, Kevin & Speight, Alan E H, 2007. "International Macroeconomic Announcements and Intraday Euro Exchange Rate Volatility," Cardiff Accounting and Finance Working Papers A2007/4, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Accounting and Finance Section. [Downloadable!]
  12. Evans, Kevin & Speight, Alan, 2006. "Dynamic News Effects in High Frequency Euro Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility," Cardiff Accounting and Finance Working Papers A2006/4, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Accounting and Finance Section. [Downloadable!]
  13. Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "US shocks and global exchange rate configurations," Working Paper Series 835, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Balazs Egert, 2009. "The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? No RePEc service, like IDEAS, charges for the use or the display of bibliographic data.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-15.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.