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Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries

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Author Info
Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez () (CSEF-Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno, 84084 Fisiano (SA),Italy.)
Marcelo Sánchez () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Abstract

This paper assesses empirically the effects of oil price shocks on the real economic activity of the main industrialised countries. Multivariate VAR analysis is carried out using both linear and non-linear models. The latter category includes three approaches employed in the literature, namely, the asymmetric, scaled and net specifications. We find evidence of a non-linear impact of oil prices on real GDP. In particular, oil price increases are found to have an impact on GDP growth of a larger magnitude than that of oil price price increases are found to have a negative impact on economic activity in all cases but Japan. Moreover, the effect of oil shocks on GDP growth differs between the two oil exporting countries in our sample, with oil price increases affecting the UK negatively and Norway positively.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 362.

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Length: 64 pages
Date of creation: May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040362

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Related research
Keywords: Macroeconomic fluctuations Oil price shock Non-linear models.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Adusei Jumah & Sohbet Karbuz, . "Modelling and Forecasting Oil Prices: The Role of Asymmetric Cycles," Working Papers 2007-22, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ruiz, Juan, 2004. "Causas y consecuencias de la evolución reciente del precio del petróleo," MPRA Paper 431, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Francis Y. Kumah & John Matovu, 2005. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Odds on Fiscal Performance," IMF Working Papers 05/171, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Torsten Schmidt & Tobias Zimmermann, 2007. "Why are the Effects of Recent Oil Price Shocks so Small?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0029, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
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