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Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective

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Author Info
Francisco Maeso-Fernandez () (University of Murcia, Department of Applied Economics, Spain)
Chiara Osbat () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt/Main, Germany.)
Bernd Schnatz () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt/Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

This paper discusses methodological issues relating to the estimation of the long-run relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals for Central and Eastern European acceding countries. Given limited data availability and reliability and the rapid structural change acceding countries have been undergoing, we identify several pitfalls of standard econometric procedures. We analyse the merits of a two-step strategy that consists of estimating the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals in a panel cointegration setting excluding acceding countries from the sample - and then “extrapolating” the estimated relationships. While focusing on the first step of such a strategy, the paper also discusses technical aspects underlying the “extrapolation” stage. As a result, the paper endows the reader with the methodological and empirical ingredients for computing equilibrium exchange rates for acceding countries, providing estimates for the long-run coefficients and a discussion of how to apply these results to acceding countries data.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 353.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040353

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Related research
Keywords: Equilibrium exchange rates; Acceding Countries; Panel Cointegration; BEER.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  17. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Banerjee, A. & Marcellino, M. & Osbat, C., 2000. "Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-economic Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/20, European University Institute.
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  21. Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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