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Exchange-rate policy and the zero bound on nominal interest rates

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  • Coenen, Günter
  • Wieland, Volker

Abstract

In this paper, we study the effectiveness of monetary policy in a severe recession and de?ation when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero. We compare two alternative proposals for ameliorating the effect of the zero bound: an exchange-rate peg and price-level targeting. We conduct this quantitative comparison in an empirical macroeconometric model of Japan, the United States and the euro area. Furthermore, we use a stylized micro-founded two-country model to check our qualitative ?ndings. We ?nd that both proposals succeed in generating in?ationary expectations and work almost equally well under full credibility of monetary policy. However, price-level targeting may be less effective under imperfect credibility, because the announced price-level target path is not directly observable. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58, E61

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0350.

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Date of creation: Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040350

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Keywords: Exchange Rates; liquidity trap; monetary policy rules; nominal rigidities; Zero-interest-rate bound;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Volker Wieland, 2010. "Quantitative Easing: A Rationale and Some Evidence from Japan," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(1), pages 354 - 366.
  2. Sofía Bauducco B. & Rodrigo Caputo G, 2011. "Metas de Nivel de Precios y Metas de Inflación: Una Revisión de la Literatura," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(1), pages 55-67, April.
  3. Paul Mizen & Tae-Hwan Kim & Alan Thanaset, 2007. "Evaluating the Taylor Principle Over the Distribution of the Interest Rate: Evidence from the US, UK and Japan," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 51, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  4. Kenneth Lewis & Laurence Seidman, 2006. "Overcoming the Zero Interest-Rate Bound: A Quantitative Prescription," Working Papers 06-14, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
  5. Gerlach, Stefan & Lewis, John, 2011. "ECB Reaction Functions and the Crisis of 2008," CEPR Discussion Papers 8472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Roberto Billi, 2008. "Price-level targeting and risk management in a low-inflation economy," Research Working Paper RWP 08-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Clinton, Kevin & Garcia-Saltos, Roberto & Johnson, Marianne & Kamenik, Ondrej & Laxton, Douglas, 2010. "International deflation risks under alternative macroeconomic policies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 140-177, June.
  8. Wieland, Volker & Coenen, Günter, 2004. "Exchange-rate policy and the zero bound on nominal interest," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/14, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  9. Kenneth Lewis & Laurence Seidman, 2005. "A Tax Rebate in A Recession: Is It Safe and Effective?," Working Papers 05-20, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
  10. Coenen, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2004. "Exchange-rate policy and the zero bound on nominal interest rates," Working Paper Series 0350, European Central Bank.
  11. Pavasuthipaisit, Robert, 2007. "Optimal exchange rate policy in a low interest rate environment," MPRA Paper 3596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Kenneth Lewis & Laurence Seidman, 2005. " Can Fiscal Stimulus Overcome the Zero Interest-Rate Bound?: A Quantitative Assessment," Working Papers 05-19, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
  13. Sofía Bauducco & Rodrigo Caputo, 2010. "Price Level Targeting and Inflation Targeting: a Review," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 601, Central Bank of Chile.
  14. Pavasuthipaisit, Robert, 2009. "Optimal exchange-rate policy in a low interest rate environment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 264-282, September.
  15. Gerlach, Stefan & Lewis, John, 2010. "The Zero Lower Bound, ECB Interest Rate Policy and the Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Hannes Haushofer & Gabriel Moser & Renate Unger, 2005. "Fundamental and Nonfundamental Factors in the Euro/U.S. Dollar Market in 2002 and 2003," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 58–76.
  17. Hatcher, Michael C., 2011. "Inflation versus price-level targeting and the zero lower bound: Stochastic simulations from the Smets-Wouters US model," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/24, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

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